Who do you think will win the midterms?

I think Gavin Newsom will be reelected as the governor of California.

As for the down ballot candidates, I’m not sure because i probably won’t be looking at my ballot until October.

@Cindy1302

Who’s running for office in your area?

Dems.
The Republicans got rid of Roe and released the Kracken of female voters.

@filmfann Perhaps, but I’m not so sure the numbers are enough to support it.

I don’t have a crystal ball but I think the republicans will take the house but won’t take the senate.

@Blackwater_Park I think there is an invisible tide rising that will sweep the election in the Dems favor.

@kritiper I’m going to stand by my prediction. I really don’t want one party to have both the house and the senate.

I’m not counting the chickens before they hatch.

@Blackwater_Park OK. You stand by yours and I’ll stand by mine.

I have no idea. Anyone who claims they do is fooling themselves.

The traditional factors seem to favor the Republicans. Midterms always favor the party out of power and become a referendum on the sitting President. Biden is unpopular, there’s a bad economy, and the Democrats have been overreaching in alot of ways. The GOP also kicked ass in down-ballot races in 2020 meaning they controlled a large number of redistricting efforts. Both parties gerrymander heavily, but the GOP won the control.

ON THE OTHER HAND, the end of Roe I think might be a strong impetus for voters who normally don’t care about mid-terms to show up. Further, I think Trump continues to be a VERY strong force for the Democrats. Alot of GOP candidates that were Trump backed won primaries despite being very weak candidates. They are likely to get their clocks cleaned in the general elections. If the Democrats can turn 2022 into a referendum on how 2020 ended (instead of how Biden has governed), they might hold both houses of congress. It’s DEFINITELY within the realm of possibility.

RCP currently has the GOP slightly favored for the Senate with a 47–46 lead, but with 7 toss-ups. The House is a bit better for them thanks to gerrymandering (winning census elections in the states will do that for you) at 218–184 with 33 toss-ups.

If I had to guess, my guess would be that we get a divided govt with the GOP VERY narrowly taking both houses of congress. But put me down as ‘low confidence’ in that prediction.