Who will be Speaker of the House if Republicans gain control?

McCarthy was the minority leader. He should therefore be considered the favorite to win the job, but in truth, both sides of the Republican divide are cross with him over how wishy washy he was on the issue of the “steal”. In truth, McCarthy’s track record from what I know is that he’s one of those politicians that goes wherever the political winds are blowing. You can find votes/issues where he was a bit centrist, and you can find some where he seemed very MAGA.

In alot of ways, this is what most speakers and senate majority leaders are. Pelosi was this. Alot of Republican think Pelosi is some kind of left wing extremist, but she really wasn’t. She was a political animal who read the winds and tides and went where they took her. And that’s why Pelosi had MANY attempts to replace her. But Pelosi had a huge secret weapon – she represented Silicon Valley and it’s GIANT BAG OF MONEY. She could distribute that money to politicians who swore fealty…and so she survived.

I don’t think McCarthy has any similar advantage. So it’s very possible, maybe even probable that he won’t be speaker. If I were setting up betting odds, I’d give McCarthy the highest odds of any single candidate…but if it’s McCarthy vs The Field, I’d put large odds on The Field.

Read last year in a news article that McCarthy is good when it comes to raising money for his party. The article did not go into details as to why and how. The TV news yesterday mentioned he may not be a shoo in in light of the recent mid-term results. He may not get enough votes from his peers.

McCarthy is “mainstream” Rep, so he is on the looney side of the national political spectrum, He hates gays and minorities, and love white people.

But he is not a shoo-in for Speaker, because of the shift of the “Freedom” Caucus to becoming the MAGA Hat/QAnon Caucus. The MJT (Marjorie Taylor Green) faction wants to spend the next two years with continual impeachment proceedings. McCarthy doesn’t want that, because it would mean a 2024 redwave from the bloodbath of ousted Repes.