People say the Russian war effort could not have benefited from the Nord Stream sabotage. Is that really true?

I’m not sure how the Russian war effort could “benefit” from it, unless the Russians thought that someone would somehow feel sorry for them (lol!) I like how Putin says it was an “Act of terrorism” ..really? And that little “skirmish” in the Ukraine is what, a picnic outing?” Yep, Putin I’m crying big crocodile tears for your gas company..boo hoo.

From a political aspect it would be beneficial to Putin to stop production of natural gas for Europe to use. Choking them off would seriously challenge many of the European nations. Stopping the flow could be a way of forcing them politically to give Russia benefits in the war with Ukraine.

But they would not benefit from damaging the pipelines. They already paid for the pipelines to be installed so having to pay twice doesn’t make any sense. Besides, they control the on/off switches and the open/close valves. Why blow up the pipe that you can disable with a switch?

So who WOULD benefit from this pipeline being destroyed? Anyone that wants to take away an income stream for Russia. Someone that doesn’t have control of the flow of natural gas.

No one knows the answer, and it’s easy to speculate in a vacuum. Without corroboration, I’m not buying the Seymour Hersh report about it being the US, especially after reading that Hersh had been filing far-fetched reports the last decade or so based on anonymous sources and no corroboration. That’s why Hersh had to post it on substack, not in a credible newspaper. But my bigger problem is motive. Really, everyone EXCEPT Russia has far more to LOSE from the action should their involvement come to light than they have to gain.

The US has hated NordStream since it’s inception, and has been largely proven right. But the Russians had already demonstrated this problem. Germany by then had already announced that it was going to suspend NordStream 2 and was going to look for other suppliers. The only thing the US gains from this sabotage is accelerating that timetable…which…so what? NordStream was turned off at that point by Russia. The biggest thing that could turn Europe against Ukraine would be if the US or UA sabotaged their energy economies. Who would take such a large risk for so small a gain?

Russia on the other hand had already RUINED NordStream’s long term value. Putin knew it. So blowing it up doesn’t really hurt him that much. If relations with the west get fixed someday, they can repair the pipeline. The downside, even if discovered, just isn’t very down.

What could they have to gain though? IMHO, a couple things.

1) It allowed them to cut off gas without continuing the increasingly unbelievable ‘unplanned maintenance’ lie. Russia wanted the gas off because remember that at that time, Europe’s stockpiling of energy was still ongoing. it was not clear that they would have enough gas to last the winter. Putin was so overconfident that the war would be over before winter that he didn’t realize that he should have cut the gas off the instant he invaded. Instead, he gave Europe months of warning that they would need to build reserves. And much of those reserves were built off Russian sources. Putin tried to interfere with that with multiple “maintenance” shutdowns, but that excuse was pretty transparent and no one was buying it anymore.

2) Russia was probably hoping they could convince someone that Ukraine or America did it and undermine western support for the war. A false flag attack is kind of Putin’s GO TO move. Usually Putin precedes the false flag with “intelligence leaks” to predispose people towards it, but if he did that here, the pipeline would have been crawling with western naval ships.

3) It acts as an unspoken, yet loudly heard, warning by Russia to the west that if they keep supporting Ukraine, he has the capability to strike our vulnerable undersea infrastructure like communications cables (yes they still exist and are sometimes used), pipelines, and what not. And indeed, that’s what alot of people were talking about in the wake of the sabotage.

4) This one is highly speculative, but there are rumors that alot of the Oligarchs were pleading with Putin to turn the NordStream back on. Blowing the thing up, and keep attribution anonymous, eliminates that debate and point of dissension.

@seawulf575 “But they would not benefit from damaging the pipelines. They already paid for the pipelines to be installed so having to pay twice doesn’t make any sense. Besides, they control the on/off switches and the open/close valves. Why blow up the pipe that you can disable with a switch?”

Exactly this.

@capet ”...Putin is in a strong position…”

No. Putin’s fucked. The only way out for him is to win in Ukraine. And he can’t win in Ukraine. He’s lost half his operational tanks already, they can’t build more and that’s before the West has sent in their modern tanks. Russia’s economy is on the brink of an implosion.

As for who did it, It might have even been China, after all they’re going to be benefiting from the cheap fossil fuels. It wasn’t Russia though (unless it was somehow sabotaged by a rogue element acting counter to the Kremlin).

I’m inclined to believe Joe Biden and Victoria Nuland, who both made statements strongly implying that the pipeline would be disabled. Nuland was also quite gleeful about the sabotage.

@Kropotkin I agree.

If we are correct, then I think it was probably a stupid idea. I think it might plausibly have helped the Russian war effort. But I’m not sure; I wanted to challenge myself on that point which is why I posted the question.