I think that before you answer that question, you have to first figure out what his REAL goal is, because he’s shotgunned so many rationale’s into the air from denazification to buffer state to sticking one in NATO’s eye to nationalist claims to Ukraine being a historical part of Russia to whatever else, that you can kind of pick whatever appeals to you.
Personally, my feeling is that the two MAIN drivers of this are:
1) Sevastopol naval base. The Ukrainians in 2014 had announced that they would not renew his lease on it. He invaded two months later.
2) Intimidate other satellite states who might be thinking of ejecting their puppet leader like Ukraine did with Yanukovich…who escaped to Russia with basically the entire Ukrainian treasury when he fled.
Now obviously (and justly), the Ukrainians won’t accept a peace where Putin keeps Crimea, so #1 is unachievable. #2 is a bit more complex because while Russia has imposed a MASSIVE cost on Ukraine, the cost it’s paid has been just as dire. Any satellite pondering breaking away from Russia has to ask if that’s a cost they’d be willing to pay for freedom and self-determination. And I wouldn’t blame them for deciding it’s not. And Ukraine has had the benefit of being the darling of western nations. If you’re Uzbekistan…you probably can’t rely on similar benefits.
If Putin were weighing this rationally, he’d have to recognize that he’s already lost this war. He only gets to control how and when he loses. And it’s better to lose now rather than later. Putin could propose a peace deal where the war ends now, Ukraine gets all of it’s land, but Putin escapes justice and no reparations. Faced with the choice of the war grinding on for years, there’s at least a chance Zelensky accepts such a deal.
Putin could then go to his population and claim that it was incompetence and corruption in the military that caused all of this….especially the Wagner group that took all the best stuff for themselves. He could then show the glamorous Wagner HQ and what not. Prighozin would have to be executed, and other Wagners rounded up, but this scapegoating might be enough for Putin to survive.
But that’s the problem – right now, I think Putin thinks that taking the L on Ukraine, ESPECIALLY losing Crimea (it’s a very symbolic thing to Russia) would cost him his job. And when you’re someone like Putin, when you lose your job, you’re probably in a pine box. Under this view, this war is LITERALLY life and death for Putin.
This is why I think it’s vitally important for Ukraine to cut the land bridge that allows Russia to supply Ukraine by driving to Melitipol, and then beginning the seige of Crimea. Until Sevastopol is out of his hands, I think Putin will remain convinced that he CAN win. The west hemming and hawwing over every weapon system only reinforces the thread of hope Putin clings to. We need to him to see that he can’t win. Once he does, then and only then can he start making rational decisions.
Putin is NOT hoping for WW3. Putin thought this battle would be his Persian Gulf. A quick, easy action where he overwhelmed a less organized, less motivated, technologically inferior opponent. Instead, he got punched in the mouth and doesn’t know what to do now. His men die by the hundreds to capture meters of territory even when they break through Ukrainian lines because they lack the operational and logistical capabilities to capitalize on opportunities. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have THREE TIMES NOW, taken back huge swathes of territory.
The Russian military can’t equip it’s men with basic body armor. They are NOT prepared for a battlefield with nuclear fallout on it. They don’t have the protective gear. Putin’s nuclear sabre rattling is 100% bluff.
In term of costs, first remember that Putin doesn’t care about the lives of his soldiers. Indeed, he BENEFITS from them getting killed as the mobilization concsription focussed on non-Russian ethnic groups and known dissidents. Everyone who was skeptical of the regime is either in jail, at the front line, or has fled Russia. For a dictator…that’s a triple win.
But also, in terms of economics, so far, Putin has done a marvelous job of hiding the economic pain from the average Russian. Life in most of western Russia is pretty normal. There are still shops open, concerts happen, events, etc. The real economic pain is taking time to work off the buffer Putin put up to ‘sanction proof’ his economy. It’s coming, but the average Russian hasn’t felt it yet.
