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JLeslie's avatar

What do you think the chances are that the Supreme Court decides in favor of the FDA and Mifepristone?

Asked by JLeslie (65744points) April 17th, 2023

What do you think the vote will be?

9 to 0
8 to 1
7 to 2
6 to 3
5 to 4

Which justice or justices do you think will surprise us?

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13 Answers

KNOWITALL's avatar

6–3 as they did on reversing Roe, likely.

LostInParadise's avatar

I am a bit confused on this. The FDA has determined that the drug works as it claims and, to be consistent with its previous ruling, the Supreme Court must therefore approve use of the drug in those states that approve of abortion.

By way of analogy, states that approve of capital punishment are allowed to use certain lethal drugs to execute criminals.

JLeslie's avatar

My guess is 7–2 or better, that the court will not support a state saying the FDA approval is invalid. I hope I’m right, but maybe it’s very wishful thinking.

@KNOWITALL Interesting. Actually, I think it was 5–3 to overturn Roe. I think Roberts abstained. I don’t know if that’s the correct term. I can’t see him agreeing with this attack on the FDA, but you could be right the same justices vote the same way they did on Roe.

KNOWITALL's avatar

@JLeslie You’re right! It was 6–3 to uphold the MS abortion ban, 5–4 to overturn Roe. Thanks!

JLeslie's avatar

I think 5–3 for Roe. I remember Roberts saying he would have said yes to 15 weeks or 20 weeks, I don’t remember which. He wanted to limit it more, but not go as far as the Wild Wild West leaving it to the states altogether.

LostInParadise's avatar

I looked into the details of the case. Link It is not about whether it is legal for people living in pro-choice states to use a drug for abortion. Instead the claim is that the drug was not sufficiently tested by the FDA. That raises some interesting questions. How do you determine whether a drug has been sufficiently tested and who, other than the FDA, has the authority to make such a determination?

JLeslie's avatar

^^I see it as anti-vax continuing to push their way into politics. If a governor wants to make a drug illegal in his state let him try, but for the supreme court to rule on the side of the drug wasn’t tested enough 23 years ago, that just has unbelievable implications.

I haven’t read or watched much regarding what’s being said in the media about it, but every day drugs are prescribed that were never tested for what they are being prescribed for, which is called off label use. What happens with that? What happens with drugs that have crappier safety records for other ailments, but the risk is worth it, because of what is being treated.

The safety record of the abortion pill is very good.

This reminds me of Reagan trying to push SG Koop into saying that abortions have horrible affects of women psychologically and physically. Koop was an evangelical pro-life Christian, but he wouldn’t lie, not even for the president. In face it was a big point of contention between them. They even did studies back then and when the studies didn’t show anything significant to back up the claim, Koop in the end made some sort of neutral statement I don’t remember. He was a Christian, but also a scientist, snd NOT a politician, and it seems he was against lying while he was in office to his credit.

Reagan just wanted to placate the Evangelicals and maybe he believed himself abortion was wrong, I guess he did.

What is happening now is just the same shit different year, but the pro-lifers actually have made huge headway this time.

JLeslie's avatar

@KNOWITALL Thanks for the link. Koop was pro-life too. The problem with Reagan was he wanted Koop to lie to push the pro-life agenda. Reagan was the start of me understanding the religious base of the party. Then with the whole AIDS thing, it was very frustrating to hear about how Reagan handled it. I think that was a weaker version of what we see today from the anti-science crowd and anti LGBT too.

I saw Clinton in an interview post his time as president and he was asked about Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. The gay community was really annoyed with that compromise. Bill Clinton said he wanted to allow gay people to be able to serve openly, that was his original promise and intention, but he said that he just didn’t anticipate the fierce hate against gay people from the Republicans. I’m sure it wasn’t all Republicans, but generally speaking.

LifeQuestioner's avatar

@JLeslie I too am cautiously optimistic that they will not override the FDA. Yeah, they’ve definitely done some crazy things but I’m hoping they don’t make this one of them. If so, then what’s the point of having it the FDA anyway? But I will say that there have been some other decisions that we have all been worried that they will just tow the Republican line on and yet they have pleasantly surprised us by not doing so. I’m definitely concerned with the makeup of the Supreme Court, especially with all the stuff coming out day after day about Thomas, but I think they have been more reasonable on some things than we expected.

Brian1946's avatar

@JLeslie

I clicked on your NYT link and got, “Keep reading The Times by creating a free account or logging in”.

Does the article specify the length of the stay?

JLeslie's avatar

^^Here you go:

Supreme Court Ensures, for Now, Broad Access to Abortion Pill

The order halts a sweeping ruling by a federal judge in Texas as an appeal moves forward in a case that could have profound implications for abortion access and the F.D.A.’s regulatory authority.

WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court said Friday evening that the abortion pill mifepristone would remain widely available for now, delaying the potential for an abrupt end to a drug that is used in more than half of abortions in the United States.

The order halted steps that had sought to curb the availability of mifepristone as an appeal moves forward: a ruling from a federal judge in Texas to suspend the drug from the market entirely and another from an appeals court to impose significant barriers on the pill, including blocking access by mail.

The unsigned, one-paragraph order, which came hours before restrictions were set to take effect, marked the second time in a year that the Supreme Court had considered a major effort to sharply curtail access to abortion.

The case could ultimately have profound implications, even for states where abortion is legal, as well as for the F.D.A.’s regulatory authority over other drugs.

If the ruling by the judge in Texas, which revoked the F.D.A.’s approval of the pill after more than two decades, were to stand, it could pave the way for all sorts of challenges to the agency’s approval of other medications and enable medical providers anywhere to contest government policy that might affect a patient.

The Biden administration had asked the Supreme Court to intervene after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit let stand a number of restrictions in the Texas ruling, even as it said it would allow the pill to remain on the market.

In Friday’s order, Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel A. Alito Jr. dissented.

Justice Thomas gave no reasons, but Justice Alito noted that the Fifth Circuit had already narrowed the most far-reaching aspects of the Texas ruling. The F.D.A. and the manufacturer of the branded version of mifepristone, Danco Laboratories, had “not shown that they are likely to suffer irreparable harm” as the case proceeds through the appeals court, he added.

Justice Alito expressed skepticism of the F.D.A.’s claims that “regulatory ‘chaos’” would ensue if the lower court ruling went into effect. In a nod to a competing case filed by Democratic state attorneys general in Washington State, which is seen as a direct challenge to the case in Texas, he accused the F.D.A. of leveraging the court system to carry out “a desired policy while evading both necessary agency procedures and judicial review.”

This is most likely not the final word from the justices. After the Fifth Circuit hears the appeal, the matter is likely to make its way back to the Supreme Court.

None of the justices appointed by President Donald J. Trump publicly dissented.

The court’s decision is, at least temporarily, a victory for the Biden administration.

President Biden welcomed the decision, saying the “administration will continue to defend F.D.A.’s independent, expert authority to review, approve and regulate a wide range of prescription drugs.”

The Texas ruling, he added, “would have undermined F.D.A.’s medical judgment and put women’s health at risk.”

A spokesman for the F.D.A. declined to comment.

The reaction from the plaintiffs — a coalition of anti-abortion groups and several doctors — was muted.

Erik Baptist, senior counsel for Alliance Defending Freedom, a conservative legal organization that represents the coalition, said the battle would continue.

“The F.D.A. must answer for the damage it has caused to the health of countless women and girls and the rule of law by failing to study how dangerous the chemical abortion drug regimen is and unlawfully removing every meaningful safeguard, even allowing for mail-order abortions,” Mr. Baptist said.

After the Supreme Court eliminated a constitutional right to an abortion in June, political and legal battles shifted to medication abortion, a two-drug regimen that is typically used in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy.

The first drug, mifepristone, blocks the reproductive hormone progesterone, and the second, misoprostol, taken one or two days later, prompts contractions and helps the uterus expel its contents.

More than five million women have used mifepristone to terminate their pregnancies in the United States, and dozens of other countries have approved the drug for use.

The case reached the justices after a swift-moving and tangled fight over the pill’s legal status.

In November, the plaintiffs filed a lawsuit in the Amarillo division of the federal court system in Texas, guaranteeing that the case would come before a single judge: Matthew J. Kacsmaryk of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas.

Judge Kacsmaryk, an appointee of Mr. Trump, is a longtime opponent of abortion and joined the bench after working at First Liberty Institute, a conservative legal group that focuses on issues of religious liberty.

The coalition that brought the suit, the Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine, argued that the F.D.A. had improperly approved the pill in 2000 and that mifepristone is unsafe. The agency has strongly disputed those claims, pointing to studies that show that serious complications are rare and that less than 1 percent of patients need hospitalization.

This month, Judge Kacsmaryk, in a temporary ruling, declared invalid the F.D.A.’s approval of the drug and gave both parties a week to seek emergency relief before the decision took effect.

Less than an hour later, a federal judge in Washington State, Thomas O. Rice, an appointee of President Barack Obama, issued a contradictory ruling in a separate lawsuit over mifepristone. Judge Rice blocked the F.D.A. from limiting the availability of the pill in 17 states and the District of Columbia, which were parties in that suit.

The competing rulings meant that the matter was almost certainly headed to the Supreme Court.

The F.D.A. immediately appealed Judge Kacsmaryk’s decision, and a divided three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit, in New Orleans, upheld the agency’s approval of the drug, ensuring that mifepristone would remain on the market.

But the panel imposed several barriers to access, siding in part with Judge Kacsmaryk, while the lawsuit moved through the courts. It blocked a series of steps the F.D.A. had taken since 2016 to increase the availability and distribution of the drug, such as allowing it to be sent by mail and to be prescribed by medical providers who are not doctors.

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