How do you think the Wagner Rebellion in Russia currently unfolding will end?

This is the question of the moment. I don’t know enough about Russia to state anything of substance.

I want Putin to be deposed. I want the war in Ukraine to end and peace to return to all of Ukraine. I want Russia to stop being such a jerk.

Hopefully, the overthrow of Putin.

I don’t think we can know, but I do think that this will tell us Russia’s actual capacity for warfare. The international community is not willing to defend the Wagner Group the way it has come to the aid of Ukraine, so there are fewer lines that Russia has to worry about crossing. The only thing that can stop them from defeating Wagner is lacking the ability to do so, whether it be a lack of equipment or a lack of personnel.

I guess a lot of how it ends comes down to the people. If they feel like Prigozhin and help his folks then Russia ends in civil war. And the military could see a mass exodus of soldiers who don’t support Putin or don’t want to fight relatives. If the people side with Putin the the Wagner brigade gets wiped out, though it will hurt the on-going war efforts with Ukraine.

Badly. Lots of people are going to die.

Prigozhin is no angel. In some ways, he is worse that Putin politically. He is no democratic liberator, just a different breed of militant fascist.

I have no problem with Putin being deposed, if it comes to that, but don’t expect sweetness and light if Prigozhin’s people take over.

Doesn’t matter who wins that – the Russian people are going to be the victims either way.

Hopefully with both Putin and Prigozhin landing simultaneous death blows on each other. The best case scenario would be Putin wiping out Prigozhin’s forces, but severely depleting his resources in the process, Ukraine then winning back their territory and Putin being assassinated for his incompetence and a democratically elected ruler coming to power. Still unrealistic, but one can hope.

I am a bit confused about the Wagner group. Aren’t they just mercenaries? Is their problem with Putin simply a belief that he is not properly handling the war, and thus having a negative impact on their war business?

I’m getting whiplash from all the news.

It was reported a plane that Putin uses, was seen leaving Moscow to an area that Putin has another residence. But the plane drop below radar before reaching Putin’s residence city.
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/putins-plane-reportedly-departs-moscow-133300722.html

Don’t expect too much. Wagner turns back troops to avoid bloodshed

It has a theatrical feel to it to me. Very little has actually happened. The march on Moscow stopped. Charges against Prigozhin have been dropped. There was basically no armed conflict.

The way it’s going is that practically nothing will change and the war will continue.

This is a war between dictators and will not change their desire for world domination. Both intend to re-establish the Russian Empire of old.

It may not make much difference. The Russian people will continue to swallow the lies broadcast by the Russian media and Putin (who started the war and who founded the Wagner Group) will continue to present himself as the saviour of his country. Putin’s “Special Military Operation” will grind on as it has become Putin’s reason to exist.

@LostInParadise Wagner claims that Russia’s military intentionally fired on them.

Looks like it’s over.

What a let-down.

My latest guess is that Prigozhin is going to be met with “a series of unfortunate events” soon, or perhaps just one.

Or Progozhin takes over the whole shebang with a military coup and Russia gets a dictator worse than Putin.

Russian soldiers are still very reluctant to fight. More so than Wagner Group’s troops.

From my standpoint, Prigozhin chickened out. He had rebellion in his mind, but something – maybe Putin or his henchmen – called hm and told him to back off.

My guess aligns with @janbb – sometime soon Prigozhin will meet his maker in a violent way. Within a month. And Belarus – although independent in name, is just a Putin state.

The other possible option is that Prigozhin is regrouping and doing better planning, and the next time – if Prig is still alive – he gets a more well planned attack on Moscow organized.

Do all despotic leaders in Russia have bald heads?

@elbanditoroso, Stalin

Mercinaries are motivated by money.

I guess that they will get a great influx of cash to go back on the Russian side of the battle?

It’s over.
They made a deal, which is insane. You know Putin will have him killed.

@filmfann I would avoid tea for a bit. If I was the general.

From what I understand, it was basically friendly fire that started this. The Russian untrained conscripts accidentally fired on the Wagner Group & pissed off Prigozhin because he thought Putin had ordered the attack. So, he did what any good leader would do & he took his troops to the source to get revenge. His troops trusted him completely & did as ordered. Putin is now down 20 combat pilots & an unknown number of conscripts. He’s NOT looking like a leader in his own country…yet he was smart enough to send the Wagner troops to Africa & Prigozhin exiled to Belarus. That should make it more than difficult to reassemble a future attack anytime soon thereby making Prigozhin less of a threat!!!

As far as getting rid of Putin goes. I don’t like nor trust him & I see him as a mad man. Still we do know his bite & I think we’re safer with him than a newbie wanting to show off their leadership prowess for the entertainment of the world!!! I’d think that it is highly unlikely at this point that Prigozhin would be chosen to replace him.

Yesterday morning was exciting in its own right & it fell somewhat flat by last night. I guess where this actually goes still waits to be seen.

I see it as: Prigozhin telling Putin to stop shooting at his men (Wagner) and leave him alone, otherwise he will knock Putin from power. Whether Prigozhin gets to control Belarus as part of that deal remains to be seen. There are penalties for shooting other mob’s people.

I don’ t think it’s over yet.

Internal power play. Putin and Prigozhin are old friends and I believe Prigozhin got humbled.
Did his whereabouts now ever get confirmed? Js.

Today’s news includes a commentator’s claim that the whole thing was staged by Putin, taking advantage of the West’s biases to put one over on us, and meanwhile setting up Prigozhin’s forces in Belarus as an advantage against Ukraine.

I think the myth of Putin as this 4D chess mastermind should have been laid to rest when his invasion of Ukraine turned into a complete disaster.

@ragingloli, I tend to agree with you there. Nevertheless, the Newsweek article was fairly persuasive.

I still don’t think we’re past Act I.

Here’s the Newsweek article I was referring to.

Thanks for the article

If Putin staged the coup, then it backfired spectacularly and I don’t think Putin is so stupid as to have allowed that to happen. I’m not at all convinced by the article and far from presenting the “obvious truth” the points made by its author just don’t make sense to me.

Putin didn’t hold his military back; his military was bogged down in Ukraine and probably wasn’t a match for Prigozhin’s forces anyway. Also, it goes entirely against Putin’s character and history to suggest he wants to be seen as weak and incompetent.

This isn’t an example of Putin tricking his enemies by feeding them information they were likely to believe in fact I think it is likely that “Team Biden” as the author put it, was very aware of the imminent rebellion even before Putin’s subordinates plucked up the courage to tell him.

I think we’re in Act II now.

Wagner’s Mutiny – what it means for Putin’s Russia