Global recession?

It’s considerably more complex than your question implies. And the answer is also rather involved.

I’ll be brief.

1) some parts of the world will experience a recession, or at least a slowdown. These will be lower-income, less technology-advanced countries.

2) some parts of the USA will experience a slowdown, as well, but (so far) it doesn’t seem like a recession. You have Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve to thank for getting inflation in hand.

3) The much larger economic issue is not cost of living or inflation – it is the effect of climate change, livability, availability of resources, and related. Climate change issues will be far worse than cost of living. Climate change and related after-effects may be worse than any recession.

@maya – one of your assertions is wrong. If there is a recession, interest rates tend to go down, not up, since there is less demand for investment capital.

Check your economic history books.

This is a bit tinfoil hat, but I believe the countries of NATO are intentionally (though they’d deny this publicly) creating a minor global recession via interest rate hikes. There is already a ceiling that Russia can charge for oil and this scheme would push demand even lower. At a certain price per barrel, Russia isn’t even breaking even, and they’re not far from that price. This means Russia is starved for revenue which they’re using to prop up their currency.

At a certain point, Russia’s economy will hit a point of no-return and that will result in massive challenges on the battlefield and also with maintaining domestic stability. It could easily lead to a coup against Putin and an end to hostilities.

Question is too simplistic to answer.

Interest rates are rising because inflation was rising. Inflation was rising because of many factors including government spending during covid, damaged supply lines from shipping hold ups, and other things. Inflation is now improved, so further interest rate hikes will slow down in frequency, if at all. Agree with the Russia comments, except I don’t think a coup will happen. More likely is an escalation of war.

Nope. Despite the gloomsayers on cable news, one does not get a recession with full employment like we have now.

There have been disruptions in various areas for the last three years, but they have corrected by having changes in other sectors.

The question was also about global issues…who here can speak for Kazakhstan? or Borneo? and others? I sure don’t know the cost of living in those places.

Relevant.

Unfortunately I can’t provide a source, but I was reading an article a bit ago about China calling in massive debts from many countries recently. Some of the poorest countries took ridiculous risks getting loans from China. Like a teenager with a new credit card.
Now. Some entire countries could lose their current fragile stability. We’re talking many millions of people facing tumultuous problems, like power, medical facilities, and the like suffering to pay China back…

That will have wild effects, unless other nations try to help…

We’re trying! The US and other countries are trying to slow the consumerism a little. The real estate prices were ridiculous! Hopefully, it is a slow down that brings us back to a more normal rate of growth without too much pain. So far, people are still spending money, and people have jobs.

Global, well, when the US slows it usually affects other countries too.