Did the U.S. know about the attack in Moscow before it happened?

I won’t commit to ISIS, but my understanding (at this point,) is that the attack looks like the work of a Muslim extremist group. They have done this many soft targets.
They don’t mind getting personally involved. They have stormed hotels, and resorts before. Often in the same type of attack.

When I first heard of it, I suspected Ukraine, and I would have been fine with that.

But that is when I thought it was a bombing. In my mind, at the time, I figured a Ukrainian drone slid through Russian Air defense, and hit a rooftop.

But the shooting, and fire bombing, sounds like Muslim terrorists. Sorry if that’s offensive to anyone, it’s their style.

Russia, like China, has a vast amount of territory. There are regions that are Islamic, and kind of just happen to be in Russian territory, from previous wars.

These people are targeted by their respective authoritarian regimes, as problematic.
As with most religious believers, the Muslim world holds it’s beliefs above the rule of law in their land. China and Russia both, desire total control of their population.

I do not believe that US diplomats knew of the attack.
It is possible that some of our intelligence agencies had some knowledge about it, but I am fairly confident that if our leaders knew, we would have tipped Russia off.
It’s also possible that the US DID warn Russia, but their warnings were not heeded…

What @MrGrimm888 says about who the attackers probably were makes a lot of sense to me. As far as the US actions beforehand, I think maybe their intelligence heard something about something that was going to go down, but they may not have known enough about where to pinpoint it and warn the Russian government. Instead they probably told them what they knew and then also warned their people not to go out in large gatherings because they had some kind of inkling that something was going to happen.

And as far as the Russian government, (not that they seem to be oozing with competence), they either did not care enough to tell people to stay home, or, didn’t think that such directives would be well received or taken seriously, or, like the US, didn’t have enough Intel to stop it.

Imagine we found out that there was going to be a terrorist attack in one of our theaters, but that was all we knew. Do you think theaters across the country would appreciate the government telling them they all had to close? Maybe, if they knew an exact date. And if they didn’t all close, I’m sure there would be a number of people that would say, I want to go to the movies so I’m still going out. So without having enough details, it’s kind of hard to shut a whole country down and tell people not to go anywhere for a somewhat vague amount of time because something is supposedly going to happen.

According to the BBC the 7 March warning from the US to its own citizens was unusually specific. It talked of reports that “extremists” had “imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow” and specifically mentioned concerts. It advised Americans in the city to avoid large gatherings over the coming 48 hours. The US government also shared this information with Russian authorities.

The timing may have been out but otherwise the warning was accurate. Putin didn’t take the warnings seriously calling them “provocative statements” and said they “resemble outright blackmail and the intention to intimidate and destabilise our society”. He is now blaming Ukraine without evidence.

I don’t have any inside information, but from what I read, the US intelligence community (spies) had heard alarming chatter over the previous several weeks that something big was coming.

The US told Russia, and Putin blew it off. Oops. Bad move.

On a larger geopolitical level, this is good. Russia had been relatively immune from terrorist attacks for decades, since the last Chechnya incident quite a while ago. So this adds Russia to the list of potential targets, and that is good for the rest of the world, and bad for Russia.

Another point is that Putin had gotten away with a lot of shit by guaranteeing security in Russia in exchange for his dictatorship. Now that social bargain is broken. How does he explain this terrorism in the context of his dictatorship? In a supposedly secure country, how do terrorist organize and strike?

Blaming Ukraine won’t work.

Bottom line: this terrorism in Moscow is a HUGE problem for Putin. It won’t lead to his demise, but it sure doesn’t make him look stronger.

Intelligence in the US did hear chatter and they told Russia.

I believe Putin stayed silent so he could blame Ukraine if anything did happen. (This is just my opinion.)

It’s not surprising to me that the US might have heard chatter about a possible attack.

I don’t think it was Ukraine.

The US had been hearing ISIS chatter for weeks & they did warn Russia that something big was being planned in Russia but didn’t have the exact details. Within the final days, they told Russia that whatever was being planned was imminent but still didn’t have the important details. I wouldn’t want to be the official who didn’t pass this info on to Putin. Therefore, I can only believe that Putin knew something was going to be happening & chose to not care. Even if he had known the exact time, location, & details, he would have allowed it to happen because in his demented mind it is the perfect opportunity to blame Ukraine because NOTHING is his fault. I also would NOT be shocked to learn that this was executed by a wing of the Russian government & the ISIS chatter coincided with their plans which they saw as a bonus.

Final thought…This is what is in store for the US if we aren’t diligent on how we vote come November.

My conclusion is about the opposite of @elbanditoroso‘s

These kinds of events are an absolute boon for authoritarian leaders. It nearly always boosts their popularity, and are typically used as pretexts to clamp down on dissidents even more. It doesn’t matter that it’s evidence of the civilian population being less safe, as their perceived lack of safety just gives more political capital to increase authoritarian measures.

Putin was warned, but not only blew off the warning, he even framed the warning as a Western provocation and blackmail, which to me suggests he was already prepared to blame Ukraine and its allies for any attack that would happen.

The amount of propaganda and information control internally in Russia means that he can probably get away with blaming Ukraine. I don’t think this will change anything materially in terms of the war, but it will just reinforce anti-Ukrainian propaganda.

It’s completely not something Ukraine would do. Their existence is hinging on maintaining international support. A purposeful attack on civilians would be about the worst thing they could do. Storm the Kremlin, or the brothels the oligarchs use, or the private estates of the people doing and supporting the war. These would be seen as legitimate symbolic targets. This is so obviously a lie by Putin. The only thing in question is if he allowed civilians to be killed for political gain, or if he killed them himself for political gain.

Those types of warnings go out to Americans visiting most of Europe and other specific countries of concern.

^I believe that travelers have to be constantly warned by the US, if they are abroad nowadays.

Other countries have travel advisories about us, and I know there’s a warning about several areas in the Caribbean, and Northern Mexico.

The islands were always shady.
I had a great time every time I went, but I always had to keep my head on a swivel.

I can hardly imagine what the relationship is like, currently, between Russia and US citizens.

Personally. I wouldn’t willingly go, to some places.
After the Brittany Grimes thing, I would not even visit Russia.

I wouldn’t go to Bangkok, or Northern Africa either.

I think that just like in America, when you go out to a big gathering, the sad reality is that you are now a potential target.

I don’t know all the details yet, but I saw an entire building top, on fire.
Whomever organized the attack, knew it would have been impossible to evacuate a crowd during a mass-casualty event in the highest floors of the building.
They used firebombs, and small arms. The small arms fire was bad, but it was mainly to cause maximum confusion and fear.

I’m tempted to opine that the event likely couldn’t have happened, without some people looking the other way. For whatever reason.

The “Putin did it/allowed it” story is ridiculous and yet plausible.

Reuters reported that Iran had also warned Russia of the attack but also didn’t have the exact details & were ignored…
https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-alerted-russia-security-threat-before-moscow-attack-sources-say-2024-04-01/
The same ISIS-K group had attacked Iran back in January of this year killing at least 144 people.