How will Trump's pick of Vance help (or hurt) his chances?

“I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical asshole like Nixon who wouldn’t be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he’s America’s Hitler,” he wrote to a friend in February 2016. He ended up voting for independent Evan McMullin.

He also referred to Trump as “cultural heroin”.

Seems Vance is indeed a yes man. He wouldn’t get to this stage in his writing and political career if he wasn’t. Recall that he described trump correctly before he said…yes to being a fake.

He’s very smart,I believe, which will probably help Trump.

@janbb “He’s very smart,I believe, which will probably help Trump.”

He can only be but so smart, given that anyone who has teamed up with Trump has had their life ruined.

My instincts are that Vance will help Trump, but maybe going with a woman would have been a better strategic play, given the reversal on Roe being extremely unpopular?

I was driving through Indiana and Ohio this afternoon, and listening to talk radio. They were talking about the Vance pick as not being the best choice. A caller in to the show said he thought a lady would have been a better choice. I forgot her name but she’s a white politician. I’ll Google it.

Trump’s running mate, is inconsequential.
His cult doesn’t care, who is the powerless yesman under Trump.

Remember how they were ready to hang Pence?

Trump is the only thing that matters, to his poor gullible sheep.

In the end I don’t think it matters who Trump picks. If someone will run with Trump they are seen as being aligned with Trump no matter what they said previously.

Trump picked a white man, so I think he knows he doesn’t have to pick someone from a minority group that is part of a large segment of the US population; not a woman, not a Black person, and not someone who is Latin American. Although, I do think the Latin American vote is often ignored and shouldn’t be.

Cable media obsesses about the Black vote, but the Latino vote is larger. The Black population is heavily concentrated in Southern states, states that will not be blue any time soon. The Latin American vote is more spread out, except for a few states, so I am not sure of their influence, but for sure in states like AZ, FL, TX, and NM they have a large influence on the outcome of elections. My TV shows that talk politics say Black people won’t vote if there is not a Black person on the ticket, these are Democrats trying to strategize. I always think how insulting that is to Black people to say that, and that can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Black people who are registered to vote are overwhelmingly registered Democrats.

I think minorities voting for Trump don’t care who the VP is. Minority Republican voters are probably passionate about politics and their vote. They would have to be to vote contra to the typical vote of their group. One exception is Republican Latin American voters in Southeast Florida, they have lots of peers who are Republicans and lots who are Democrats, and Miami-Dade county in particular is 69%, so their immediate world is like being in a Latin American country.

Generalizing: Democrats will think Vance is awful. Republicans will thin he is fine, and some will even think he was a fantastic pick. Independents probably will feel neutral about the pick.

Logically, everyone should care about the VP, because Trump and Biden are so old, but I think people still focus on the top of the ticket the most.

Not entirely sure. What he brings to the ticket is that he is young (39) and that he comes from poor beginnings and that he is from Ohio. He can more readily relate to blue collar folks. I haven’t really heard him speak in public very much…only maybe a sound byte on TV…so I can’t speculate on his views or how he presents himself. I’ve heard he shares many views with Trump on a lot of topics which is good and bad. Good because it allows them to be united, bad because it doesn’t bring in the Devil’s Advocate. He is an ex-marine which is good, and he’s apparently quite bright. I think he will be okay as a VP pick for Trump, helping him a little without really dragging him down. I personally have always liked Byron Donalds and thought he would have been a good choice. Whoever the VP is this time around is likely going to be the Repub candidate in 2028

It depends on the part of the country you’re speaking with. A VP should stand on their own merits. They should fill in the shortcomings of the president. Vance once called 45 a toxic a-hole. Now that he’s kissing that a-hole, his BS has changed. He is becoming a 45 mini-me. Some undecideds might like it where it will be a deciding turnoff to others. From what I heard around town yesterday, it’s a turnoff where I live!!! The ONLY good thing I heard was that he’s too smart to say I don’t care about you. I just want your money. I’m thinking that he hasn’t needed to say that as yet.

You’re talking about President Vance in a year or two. Trump is getting older and probably will drop dead during his term if elected. Not a healthy guy.

Vance is a sop to the ultra right, and they were going to vote Trump anyway.

No real help to the Trump campaign.

I think Trump’s marketing team told him it was imperative that he select a running mate with a name similar enough to his previous one that the campaign signs would not need to change in a significant way. “Preferably a five-letter surname ending in -nce, if possible.”

No, but if nothing else, Vance is a former never-Trumper, who went on to win an election after his conversion, which is a message to never-Trumpers everywhere.

Vance is smart enough I think not to even try and upstage trump. He knows that will be the quick end of his political ambitions.

He is a writer. He knows the deal. And similar to trump who is producing his own TV show, to the detriment of this country, Vance thinks he is writing a book on his own life story and at present, this chapter in his life is about this great turning point from hillbilly writer to VP candidate. What a leap.

Vance got a lucky break, being so young and a stone’s throw from being President. He’ll be running for President in four years. Hopefully the Dems will have a great candidate ro run against him, not like the disaster choices we have now.

Also, Hillbilly Elegy is really just standard right-wing fare laundered for liberals. It makes the usual arguments that individuals are to blame for their poverty and lack of social mobility rather than any systemic issues, and it’s about poor white people, so it was more digestible for a liberal audience than a book evaluating the cultural failings of the urban black population. Vance is a Yale-educated elite masquerading as a champion of the working class. I can absolutely see why Trump picked him.

@Demosthenes I agree. I was fooled when I read it.

To be fair, I haven’t actually read it. That is just my impression from having read about Vance and his book, but I understand that to be the thesis. In either case, this guy is no working-class whisperer, but that is clearly how Trump intends to present him (and I believe was the first thing he said about him when announcing him as VP).

Trump used to talk about how Bush marketed himself as a regular guy you can drink a beer with and the Republicans bought it. Bush grew up with a silver spoon, did some of his secondary education in private schools in the northeast and went to Yale and Harvard.

Trump for years was an observer of the Republican formula.

Ohio was one of those places Hillary didn’t seem to think much of. I assume they think they’ll automatically take Ohio now.

It’s interesting though, that Trump has never won NY. A VERY telling sign.

^^Because there’s not enough sheep in NY.

^They know him the best.

@MrGrimm888 I don’t think any Republican POTUS candidate has won NY since Reagan. And it wasn’t as radical back then. NY has given its votes to Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, Obama, Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton since then. That doesn’t speak much for their voting history.

J Leslie when you visit Kennebunkport and see the incredible peninsula that’s owned by the Bush family, uou really get a great idea of how rich the family is.

Mr Grimm NY is a blue state so its not too likely they’d go for a Republican. Once in a while we have a Republican governor, but not too often.

@jca2 Trump called out Bush after 9/11 for letting his Saudi oil friends leave the country. He called out swiftboat for their lies about John Kerri. He called out antisemitism as a concern. Then, when the time came he used those things to his advantage for power. I really think Trump is mentally ill. He looked crazy with his fist up saying “fight” to the crowd after being shot. WTH?! That is completely nuts. Fight? He wants another Medieval brawl at his event? It’s like watching Games of Thrones.

I’m sorry. Trump has self proclaimed himself as one of NY’s wealthiest, most important people. He has gloated about it, for decades.

So. You mean Trump was not a hero, like he claims?