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LostInParadise's avatar

Shouldn't the large early voting turnout in Georgia be taken as a good sign for Harris?

Asked by LostInParadise (32212points) 2 months ago

Democrats in previous elections have voted early disproportionately to Republicans. Trump opposes early voting. I know that the polling has been close, but it seems to me that a large number of first day Georgia voters, twice as many as last year, would be a good sign for Harris.

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36 Answers

mazingerz88's avatar

I can only hope so.

JLeslie's avatar

No! Assume nothing.

Plus, Trump is now encouraging Republicans to early vote.

LostInParadise's avatar

That should be twice as many as last election, not last year. Link

Tropical_Willie's avatar

The question is if the voters were in Atlanta and other large Democratic areas . . . Trump’s ass is grass.

The only way he wins is he starts having his minions killing Democrats !

SQUEEKY2's avatar

I really hope so, the world isn’t ready for another Trump round.

jonsblond's avatar

Democrats do tend to vote early more than republicans do. I just saw this information tonight:

Pennsylvania early voting: mail in ballots returned so far.

Democrats 358,703 (35.4% returned)
Republican 130,076 (26.8%)
Other 47,433 (23.2%)

MrGrimm888's avatar

Not necessarily.

JLeslie's avatar

Right now the county next to me has significantly more votes cast by Democrats because they organized for early voting. My guess is the final vote will be over 60% for Trump in that county.

Here is a quote from Trump a few days ago, “Go vote the minute the polls open.” An article about it: https://nz.news.yahoo.com/trump-early-voting-arizona-vote-142133397.html

Forever_Free's avatar

Dems are typically larger early voters. However this really is not a large turnout enough to make a difference.

LostInParadise's avatar

I am not saying that the early voting in and of itself makes a difference, only that it imay indicate a large number of Democratic votes overall.

elbanditoroso's avatar

Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.

jca2's avatar

I’m not counting on anything and I’m expecting some shit, like with Bush v Gore.

elbanditoroso's avatar

I will be voting in by county community center (in Northern Atlanta) this afternoon. I’ll tell you how crowded it is.

JLeslie's avatar

My advice is don’t go the first day of early voting and don’t go first thing in the morning the first 3 days of early voting. Tons of people and then they complain about lines. People are so predictable.

Strauss's avatar

It seems that high voter turnout has historically favored the Democrats, so yes!

JLeslie's avatar

@LostInParadise It can indicate a high number of early voting Democrats. I hope you’re right, but last night I saw someone who is a professional in tabulating and assessing these things, and he was saying we can’t necessarily make assumptions, especially compared to 2020 which was during pandemic, not normal voting circumstances.

My experience is many Democrats are weirdly obsessed with voting the first day the polls open and lining up before the doors open terrified of long lines, because our liberal media obsessively talks about lines at the polls. For the most part that is carefully captured by reporters knowing when and where to capture a photo of a line. The same place might have no line two days later.

LifeQuestioner's avatar

I don’t go anywhere to vote. Once it’s okay to do so, I take my mail-in ballot and I drive it up to the closest center near me and drop it in a ballot box. The mail is just not been consistent enough for me to trust putting my ballot in the mail.

@JLeslie I’m not sure that’s always the reasoning. For me, I vote as early as it’s allowed because you never know if there’s going to be bad weather on election Day or something like that. Something where you would rather leave work and go home to have a bowl of soup and snuggle in a blanket rather than stand in a line. But that’s my take on everything, get things done as far in advance as is reasonable so that if something happens you are prepared. That’s how I do my job.

jonsblond's avatar

^I agree. My father, husband, son and I all requested absentee ballots and we have already turned them in. I want it over and done with without dealing with lines and the public.

SQUEEKY2's avatar

Ever since the mrs and I discovered early voting it’s the only way we vote in our elections up here.

jonsblond's avatar

I just read that Detroit reported a 41% absentee ballot return rate as of October 15. That’s compared to a 26% return rate during the same period in 2020.

JLeslie's avatar

@LifeQuestioner It makes sense to go early in case something comes up like bad weather or you get sick (God forbid) or if you wait till Election Day and then your car breaks down, all of those murphy’s law things. There is 2 weeks of early voting here in FL and when I lived in TN too.

I’m talking about the first day first thing in the morning. Most people where I live are retired and can go any day any time of day. If they go at 2:00 in the afternoon there will be barely a line, but there will be plenty of voters complaining the line was 45 minutes when they arrived before the voting place opened. All they have to do is go a few hours later on the first day or not go at all on the first day. I’m not talking about waiting until election day.

Where I vote they make you put your name when you drop off a ballot. It’s stupid. So you don’t just toss the ballot in a box. You can just mail it USPS, so it’s not logical to gave to put your name down when you drop off a ballot, but that’s how they do it.

elbanditoroso's avatar

I just drove by the local community center. I was planning to vote, but the lines were too long.
\About 100 people in line OUTSIDE, and I know from experience that there were at least 75–80 on line inside.

Business is booming in my part of Georgia.

Caravanfan's avatar

Trump is now favored to win the electoral college. Be prepared.

jca2's avatar

I’ve been feeling like he’s gonna win.

LifeQuestioner's avatar

The only way Trump is going to win is if he cheats. Unfortunately, that’s quite possible. That’s why we need to turn out in record numbers and vote blue.

Caravanfan's avatar

@LifeQuestioner That’s not true. He will win because the majority of the people in key swing states will vote for him. He is very popular.

jonsblond's avatar

There are too many Republicans who have turned on Trump and I don’t see how he could have any new supporters recently. I do not believe he’ll win the electoral college.

jca2's avatar

I have Republican friends who tell me that Harris is for raising taxes on the middle class 30% and she’s for socialized health insurance. I’m like, WTF, where do they get this stuff? I said to my friend who told me, that I haven’t heard these things that she has, and I haven’t heard Harris say those things. I am guessing she’s watching Fox or Newsmax or whatever but

@jonsblond As you know, Trump lovers love him no matter what – despite all the things he’s done wrong, despite all the crazy things he’s said and done, they justify, defend and they just love love LOVE him!

jca2's avatar

@Caravanfan Is there a link for the electoral college thing? I googled and I didn’t see anything like that.

Caravanfan's avatar

This is why Trump will win. I have people in my family who actually believe this.

https://apnews.com/article/jezebel-spirit-kamala-harris-christian-nationalismv21-0a513c9e549a57a33f864341556d1b7a

@jca2 It’s from Silver’s blog.

Caravanfan's avatar

@jca2 Here is the fivethirtyeight blog. It’s no longer Silver’s blog but it’s closely aligned. Currently Trump is up by forecast 272 to 266.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

jca2's avatar

OK thanks, @Caravanfan. Will check it out.

I am seeing today on the regular network news that Trump is ahead with men.

JLeslie's avatar

@elbanditoroso Is today the first day of voting? Trust me, go back on Thursday at 2:00 in the afternoon.

jonsblond's avatar

On a side note I was invited tonight to the Obama/Walz rally in Madison for this coming Tuesday. It’s a rally for the first day of early voting in Wisconsin. It’s in my neighborhood so I can walk to the rally. I’m very excited.

MrGrimm888's avatar

The ONLY good sign, was that GA’s Supreme Court found Trump’s hand counting measures were unconstitutional.

Trump IS most certainly trying to make sure he can’t lose. He’s not trying to win…

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