As a sign that Russia is weakening from heavy loses in the Ukraine War, Putin could not continue to devote resources to Assad.
The rebels launched a massive and successful surprise offensive, gambling Putin could not divert further resources to help Assad hold them off.
The US/Biden made an aerial attack on ISIS positions, and warned them not to attempt to regroup and take advantage also.
This was an offensive that was a result of current geopolitical events and is an opportunity to transition from the dictatorship of Assad’s family.
Apparently the US, is supporting the overthrowing of Assad, and likely trying to influence whomever will take power, so the new leader will be hopefully democratically elected some how, but also play ball…
It could be argued, that this is just another US attempt at forcing regime change.
However. The US is (I think) mainly trying to ensure ISIS is kept in check, so that at least there will be a potential government, eventually.
The Kurds will likely want their own caliphate, and that would potentially prevent wars in the near future and potentially add stability to at least northern Syria.
Assad is just another oligarch, and his previous long relationship with Putin, suggests Putin likes him (or Assad has something on Putin…)
Russia often offers asylum, to people wanted by the west.
(Like Edward Snowden.)
But clearly there was something in it for Putin, to commit so many resources to Assad.
The logical next move, as Putin can no longer help him hold Syria, would be the consolation prize of living in Russia.
And he will have to keep a LOW profile. If Putin thinks for a second Assad has sympathizers in Russia, or if anything smells funny, I wager Putin will arrange an accident to take care of Assad and move on.
I have heard that when people are taken in by Russia, they are kind of not allowed to leave.
Obviously, this could be different for Assad, and he could end up in one of many former USSR big wig resort towns, or possibly somewhere in South America.
I imagine Assad was VERY nervous, having to go into Putin’s arms. Now, his destiny is tied to his ability to not piss Putin off…
It’s interesting to note that Assad no longer has a country/military and could be ripe for assassination by any number of parties.