General Question

ragingloli's avatar

Will asteroids become a new weapon of international terror diplomacy?

Asked by ragingloli (52374points) 1 month ago

A newly discovered asteroid is on its way:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Esk1hg2knno
Predicted to have a 1% impact probability in 2032, with an earlier encounter in 2028, and with a potential impact zone being a narrow but long strip around the equatorial zone spanning from South America, over Africa and to India.
Impact probability will become more accurate the nearer the impact date comes.
A successor to the DART mission could effectively shift the impact location along that narrow strip, and if possible, move its impact point into the ocean, or if not possible, force a global trolley problem, where you now have to choose which country it would crash into.
Supposing that by 2028 the impact is determined to be certain, and the impact area narrowed down to a singular country, or if it takes longer to determine it, and the Rapist-in-Chief has not vacated office by 2032, would he launch a successor to the DART mission while threatening potentially affected countries with redirecting the asteroid to their territories to extort concessions from them?
Would other players, like China, Russia, Japan, or the EU, launch their own mission to intercept DART 2, leading to the world’s first instance of space combat?

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9 Answers

gorillapaws's avatar

It’s certainly going to pose interesting ethical questions, such as if mankind has the ability to partially alter the course of an asteroid such that it will still hit Earth, but WHERE on Earth might be adjusted, how that determination might get made and who gets to make it? What if it were going to hit mainland china and the CCP wants to push it further out such that it creates tsunamis on Japan’s East coast? Does Japan have the right to send their team to prevent China’s?

Great question.

Caravanfan's avatar

I’m not sure it’s possible to divert an asteroid with pinpoint accuracy. It would obviously be a WMD. Let’s say that they “aimed” it to the Japanese coast. If it’s off by just a squillionth of a degree then it could easily hit China.

Zaku's avatar

Interesting question.

I am surprised that it would really be a matter of choosing where to hit Earth. If one craft can do that, why wouldn’t we send 20 craft to make it miss altogether?

RocketGuy's avatar

@Zaku – the intended target might not have the capability to send those 20 craft.

Pandora's avatar

Nope. Humanity is crazy stupid. We will never get our stuff together enough to make it work. Apparently, we have over 3000 dead satellites orbiting earth and 2000 good satellites that may soon be damages by other satellites or space junk large enough to damage them. So the fact that everyone is like Oh, well, lets just send up another one if there is a crash, makes me doubt they have any ability to move the direction of an actual asteroid.

gondwanalon's avatar

The asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs was 10 to 15 kilometers wide.

This 2024YR4 asteroid is believed to be much bigger (“40–90 kilometers wide”).
If that beast hits anywhere on Earth it will send us back to the Stone Age if not wipe out all of mankind.

ragingloli's avatar

metres, not kilometres.

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