I will encourage everyone and anyone to look at www.fivethirtyeight.com, click on the tag for Bradley Effect and read why it’s a non-issue.
As I posted in another question this morning, look where were are as a society in 2008 compared to where we were in 1982, look at how many more blacks there are in popular culture, think about how much more frequently you see interracial couples, and think about most importantly how vocal conservatives have been trained to be these days. It’s a different world, we’re much further removed from desegregation, black power and white flight than we were in 1982. Very few people would have a reason to fear that they have to say Obama when they’re thinking McCain. And indeed if your bias is white = good, black = bad, and you’re undecided, chances are you’re going to say McCain, so if anything, their evidence is actually weakening their own point. Again, it’s been 10 years since anyone’s been able to demonstrate a Bradley effect, and we have TONS of polling data from the primaries. It just DOES NOT EXIST.
Yes, Obama may not have been as far ahead in the polls as a white candidate would have been in the same situation…yes there are some states where racism may play a factor. But it seems that your states where there is the biggest chance of racism, also have your largest black populations, and the fact that African Americans are voting for Obama in a 95/5 ratio instead of the usual 91/9 ratio that they vote for the Democrat, and given that blacks will vote in historically high numbers if for no other reason than to have the chance to vote for the first black President.
And as there will be whites who will not vote for a black, and blacks who vote for Obama who wouldn’t vote otherwise, there will be some people who because of where they live will be afraid to say who they’re voting for (on either side of the coin). But we are not just coming off a period of racial, cultural upheaval and social change which might make us afraid to tell a pollster what we really think.
And my personal bet, from what I’m seeing is that the polls if anything are understating Obama’s support. Far more substantive than any one tiny factor (even the Reverse Bradley Effect which says there are whites in conservative areas who are afraid to say they’re for Obama) is the systematic difficulties in judging the effects of an effective get out the vote strategy.
Another thing 538 has clued me in on is the ground game. You go to any swing state (and the proprietors of this site have travelled to them all), and you’ll see everywhere, red counties, blue counties and swing counties, Obama has McCain just outflanked in the ground game. Pollsters have two models they work with, one is registered voters, and that is a bit better a ways out, but really all that looks at is at a point in time, possibly as far back as the last election, what percentage were of each party, and then it weights the number of respondents by affiliation, so that if a particular state they’re polling is 40% Dem, 40% Republican and 20% Independent, that too is what the sample will look like.
But as we get closer, both parties have been registering new participants, Obama’s been registering FAR more than McCain, so in some cases it may have been 55% Republican, 45% Democrat in 2004, but now it’s 55% Democrat and 45% Republican. So they will use a likely voter model, and try to determine of these people, who is likely to vote. Well, people who always vote are likely, as are people who almost always vote.
They can look at this by age, and party afiliation and what not. And they can say that usually x% of newly registered voters show up the rest don’t. But what they can’t really predict is turnout.
So, the key factor here is that in a couple areas, they are severely undercounting Obama’s support in some states where it may make a material difference. For one thing the youth vote, there are always big reasons to believe they’ll turn out, but they don’t. But most years there’s a high degree of apathy…this year, not only are young people excited by Obama, they have been motivated in record numbers to volunteer for him. No polling model can really estimate how big of a bounce Obama will get from youth turnout. The black vote is the same thing, look at Georgia for example.
Most have Georgia pegged as a deep red state, but recent polling shows John McCain up by only 3 to 7%. But in figuring out a likely voter model, they are looking at the fact that 27% of registered voters in Georgia are black, and they usually make up 25% of the vote because their turnout is lower than that of whites. But registrations have swelled to the point where it’s more like 29% of registered voters in Georgia are black. And, voter turnout is likely to be much higher among this demographic. It’s estimated that you might actually have blacks representing 31–32% of the vote (intead of 25%). And since they vote monolithically in support of Obama (95–5 ratio), right there is enough to overcome a 3 to 7 percent advantage in the polling.
I expect you will see several shockers on election night, and they will by and large favor Obama. Now don’t become complacent, make sure you still do whatever you’ve been doing to support Obama, if not more, if you really want him to win. But no reason to get too nervous at this point, certainly not over whether or not Obama’s race will negatively impact his chances.
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