I guess it gives me a little pause. I’ve gotten a couple of these phone calls and 3 of their mailers, and I’ve seen GOP on my caller ID a few times prior to this where they didn’t leave a message. Part of me thinks if I, someone who has never voted for a Republican for President and hasn’t been anything but vocal about my support of Obama, is getting these phone calls, that means these aren’t targeted messages, they’re trying to blast this out, and I’m just not sure how effective a tack that is. I have to imagine if he’s calling people at random. From the Huffington Post:
“Reports came from Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, West Virginia, Maine, New Hampshire, Indiana, Delaware, Illinois, Georgia and even Canada.
Several readers in Minnesota also reported receiving the call…”
Now look at where these states stand (based on the most recent update at www.fivethirtyeight.com):
Ohio – Obama up 2.5%
Colorado – Obama up 6%
New Mexico – Obama up 6.4%
Wisconsin – Obama up 11%
Pennsylvania – Obama up 10.8%
Virginia – Obama up 6.5%
Missouri – Obama up 1.4%
North Carolina – Obama up 0.6%
Florida – Obama up 3.5%
Texas – McCain up 12.5%
West Virginia – McCain up 1.1%
Maine – Obama up 10.7%
New Hampshire – Obama up 7.6%
Indiana – McCain up 2.1%
Delaware – Obama up 20.7%
Illinois – Obama up 18.1%
Georgia – McCain up 6.1%
Minnesota – Obama up 7.5%
Canada – Not a fucking state old man.
So, let’s just use logic here. We’re now just over 2 weeks from the election. If McCain doesn’t win every state that he’s ahead in now, every toss up state, and pretty much every state Obama is up by less than 8.5% in, he loses the election. If McCain is up by more than 10% in a state, it will probably stay in McCain’s camp…sure, he’s now behind in some states that he was ahead by more than 10% in a few weeks ago, but if he bleeds enough to make states where he’s still ahead more than 10% in, he’s got no chance. He has to go with a strategy that says I may lose a “little” more ground if I do nothing, but you can’t just assume you’re going to lose EVERYWHERE and start making calls willy nilly. So, one could make a case that any state that is within 10% one way or the other should be on the target list. So, why in the WORLD would he call ANYONE in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Texas, Maine, Delaware or Illinois? And why would ANYONE in Canada get a call?
So, not only are about 40% of the calls he’s making (based on where he’s calling) wasted, but it seems that probably more than half the calls to these other states are wasted too if he’s not targeting Independents and GOPer’s! And in Minnesota, they can’t use a pre-recorded message, every call (like the hate filled ones left on my voicemail) have an actual person reading (awkwardly) from a script. These calls cost them TEN times as much each to place as robocalls.
Now the other thing to consider is that what candidates at this stage of the game really need to focus on is getting out the vote. Broad efforts which can be called “advertising” no matter what form it takes be it television (which is only necessary at this stage because of the tit for tat aspect) or phone calls are not NEARLY as effective as getting people to go door to door, or even to make personal phone contacts which are not simply a pre-recording or read of a script. The key to success in contacting voters at this stage is a) targeting the people who might actually be persuadable, and b) having someone well versed enough in the issues (and not a single talking point) to actually persuade.
Yeah, there will be people, maybe even several thousand people spread across the dozen states where it might matter could be swayed. Meanwhile, Obama is spending his money moving an army of volunteers onto the streets and getting tens if not hundreds of thousands of converts in EACH ONE of these states.
As my friend Al says “What? Me Worry?”
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