If they do it across the board—i.e., don’t try to pick winners and losers—then everybody who wants one can get a 4% home mortgage and/or a write-down of the principle to reflect depressed market prices. If I understand it correctly, the government will be a kind of pass-through. That is, they will buy the mortgages (maybe for less than face value, since these are distressed loans) and sell them back to Freddy and Fanny who, in turn, will bundle and resell them as securities on the secondary credit markets. Since the government will be turning the loans over instead of holding them, there won’t be much drain on this revolving fund. Its the investors who will bear the burden of the lower interest rates in the form of a reduced future income stream. But don’t worry about them, they already made their killing in creating this mess, and it is not too much to ask of them to accept a rate that is fair by historical standards.
Now, if the government funds the write-down of principle to reflect current real estate prices, there could be a drain on the fund. But, as you can see from the links above, there are proposed mechanisms for the government to recover any windfall profits if they go immediately sell their property. This gradually decreases with each passing year up to some limit.
A 2% cut in mortgage interest puts money in your pocket just like a tax cut, so the demand stimulus will help strengthen the economy and expand the tax base, as it provides relief to individuals. It also helps the investor, because even though these new loans earn less, they are much more secure and predictable. Currently it costs more to foreclose than to do the workout, because a foreclosed property quickly looses value, and drags down the property values of its neighbors. Also, once the foreclosures stop, the real estate market can recover, home equity can appreciate, and stability and prosperity will ensue.
We more or less have to do something like this before the recession deepens and begins to tip the 10 million troubled mortgages that are currently out there into foreclosure. If that happens it will set off a cascade of failures that could bring down the whole world economy.
Yes, it is a socialist thing to do, but in nationalizing Fanny and Freddy, we have already committed ourselves to “doing the socialist thing.” We have already bailed out securities investors. So, why go half way? Why not go to the root of the problem, bail out the debtor on a revolving fund basis, and put the whole system on a more stable footing?
Socialism doesn’t mean you have to have total state control. You could run the mortgage credit industry like a public utility, where you have strict limits on interest rates, and a modest but guaranteed rate of return. You would still have competition, but you wouldn’t have companies trying to make huge profits redlining, predatory gimmicks, or gouging their customers. Currently, the CEOs of our major corporations pay themselves hundreds of millions of dollars each—all of which is wasteful administrative overhead that does nothing to improve performance or customer service. In this respect, the corporate elite have a conflict of interest with the public good. Socialism would eliminate this legalized theft, and create a regulatory environment where corporations would be restrained from ripping off the public.
(As you can see, the rich have very good reasons to dislike socialism; and for this reason, I think that socialism has gotten a bad rap.)