Will your bank fail in 2009?
Asked by
Mizuki (
2041
)
January 2nd, 2009
Here is a list of regional US banks. On the far right of the chart the health of the banks are listed from 0–500.
Any bank higher than 100 is at high risk of failure. Banks rated higher than 50 are also at high risk.
100 * ((Non-performing Assets – U.S guaranteed loans) + Other REO) / (Equity + Loss Reserves)
All of this information is available on the FDIC website, but it’s extremely difficult to gather in a meaningful way. In fact, I don’t think you’ll find a list like this anywhere else on the internet.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/chris/banks/banks.html
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/024615.html
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23 Answers
What is the effective date of this data?
My bank scores a 12.
My bank is pretty darn low on that scale, but it’s already been bought up, so I think it’ll survive, in a manner of speaking.
You know that Lew Rockwell is a nutjob right?
a nutjob in what regard? I know he’s a Libertarian, but on economics he sometimes has good input. please expound. Rockewell did not devise the Texas Ratio…..
Wachovia is at 30. I’m good. So far.
Even if the guy is a nutjob.
Ah ha. I do see that now. I’ve read a bunch of his editorials (they use to be posted to digg all the time when I was a frequent user) and he seems like a leftwing nutjob that makes us moderates look bad. He would yell FIRE if someone lights a match. I always make sure to wear my tin foil hat when I read his column.
I do see now that in combination with bythebay, you guys seem to have some good information here. I just wouldn’t go by what I found strictly on his website.
JP Morgan Chase – 12. So no, won’t fail. It also happens to be the second biggest bank in USA, so I am not too worried.
Yeah, my bank is on that list and what is really shitty is that my mom is the AVP of it and is going to lose her job because other branches of her bank screwed up.
Mine scores an 8, so I’m good to go.
Know nothing about this dude, though. Could be a nutjob.
@bythebay--Eric Fox wrote the article on Texas Ratio, on investopedia. Fox manages a hedge fund with abysmal performance: http://community.investopedia.com/news/IA/2008/Central-Securities-A-Long-Term-Winner-CET1010.aspx?partner=YahooSA
The top-five holdings of the fund are:
Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR) – 6.1%
Agilent Technologies (NYSE:A) – 5.2%
The Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) – 4.9%
Brady Corporation (NYSE:BRC) – 4.7%
Convergys Corporation (NYSE:CVG) – 4.0%
Based on Eric Fox’s performance, I would read his advice with a full glass of Kool Aide in hand.
@ Jess—sorry to hear about your mom’s job loss.
@Misuki – Is it “any bank higher than 100” as you have it posted here, or is it “any bank lower than 100” as you posted in another thread?
If it’s “higher” then you’re talking about less than 100 banks, that sounds about right, if it’s “lower” then we might as well all scream “the sky is falling”.
My mattress and freezer should make it through 2009…I’m kinda worried about the freezer though – it’s getting up there in age..
Dale—I think the Banks above 50–100 are at risk of insolvency.
That makes sense….less than 100 banks over 100, and some risk to a couple hundred more, that’s probably a pretty fair assesment. Seems like a fair enough way to calculate the risk as well, though there are certainly a number of other factors that I’m sure play into it. My banks at a 36, think I’ll keep it.
@Mizuki: You said “Based on Eric Fox’s performance, I would read his advice with a full glass of Kool Aide in hand.” Well, I raise my glass to you as the same can be said for people everywhere giving financial advice who have suffered losses both personally and professionally; . losing their houses, investments, etc. This includes people here on Fluther. There is no Magic 8 Ball and when the shit hits the fan, experts are a dime a dozen.
bythebay——I am simply citing the performance of the fund he manages. Performance was poor, which is relevant to his credibility. Fox bashes the Texas Ratio, yet his performance kind of sucks—google what he had to say when oil was $70 per barrel—he said, buy buy buy—all the way down to $35.
If we take advise from folks that have strong positive track records, we may get better advice, and have better information to act upon. Taking advise from Fox would be like making an investment in Maddoff’s fund come Monday morning.
Mine is at a 28. Guess I won’t put my money under the mattress just yet :)
If my bank fails, Australia fails.
Mine is at 38. I’m not worried.
I HOPE!
So I don’t have to pay the rest of my loans ;)
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