When do you think the economy will actually start to pick up?

Not an economist but I think it will begin a recovery by the end of the year.

I think things will start turning around I’m a year or so, but the accumulation of wealth we’ve had the last decade is gone forever. Due to the rise of India and china, as well as our own greed and incompetence, most people might never have the same relative wealth they thought they did five years ago. Which is not to say that most of us were wealthy, only that we won’t feel that way again.

10 or 11 months for it to feel like it is picking up.

Some reports I have seen have the upturn beginning at the end of this year, but I have also seen a minority of reports placing the turn around in 2010. NPR (I think it was NPR) had a story that one individual thought things might be down for as many as 5 years. I just tried doing a search for a reference, but can’t seem to find it now.

The funny thing about recessions is we don’t know we’re in one for several months after we actually entered it, and we typically don’t know we’re out of it for several months after things started to improve.

All that said, I think this one will go much longer than usual only because the media refuses to let go the doom and gloom reporting. And we, the public, believe everything the media shows us.

<—- knew we were in a recession before the Government- but didn’t we all…

It could take 5 years or more if Congress keeps at it.

Fireside beat me to it. I was going to say 10 months.

5 years of this is an extremely depressing thought, and beyond my comprehension.

Not anytime soon

2 years.

Interesting. I wonder how well people, on average, predict these things? If we did a survey, would we get a good triangulation on how long it will last?

@daloon We’re at least as good an any pundits based on what I have seen of their track records.

For all of these predictions, is it implied that since it won’t improve for X amount of time, the economy will continue to decline until that point?

@guitarhero1983 – not mine, my prediction was for when it will feel like it is picking up. It’s like @sacaver said, “we typically don’t know we’re out of it for several months after things started to improve”

Tomorrow!

I work for one of the Silicon Valley giants, and our CEO predicted 2010. I’d take his savvy estimate over my ignorant guesswork even though he is a Republican.

@Daloon, ever try a Rand-type Delphi forecast? Even doing it informally among nonexperts, you can see something like convergence in two rounds. Very interesting.

2010 sounds about right though I wouldn’t be surprised to see it extend into 2011 or 2012.

@Jeruba: damn! I wrote a whole long reply, and then accidently hit some key (I wish I knew which one) and it all disappeared. I’m not going to try to recreate it. Don’t know R-t D f. Know something similar that does similar thing.

Wonder about wisdom that people hold without knowing they hold it. Too bad about my detailed forecast. But I can assure that whatever happens, I was spot on!

Since economic recovery is somewhat tied to consumer confidence, our guesses could be as valid as anyone else’s. We ARE the consumers aren’t we?

If it keeps up like it is…. its going to take a long long long time.