What does this recession mean for the republicans, and can the democrats ultimately benefit?

The public has a short memory. If Obama and the Dems don’t manage to start turning things around in a couple of years, I fear the Republicans could use that to their advantage.

Now, that having been said, President Franklin D Roosevelt was able to see us out of the Depression, and there must have been a period of time when people wondered about him. My point is that there is hope for Dems to stay in power long enough to see the results of their efforts before the people turn to the Republicans.

What it really comes down to is that people are aware that Bush left us with a serious mess, and that the aftershocks of the finance and banking crisis are still being felt. Obama has a lot of freedom right now to do what he thinks best, and if he manages to choose a path that seems like it’s lessening or minimizing the pain—or if he takes an approach that results in a sharp sudden pain rather than a lingering unpleasantness, and manages to sell it with his oratory—then he and the Democrats stand to gain considerably.

The question that’s going to be asked in 2012 is the same one that was asked in 1980—are you better off than you were four years ago? Obama’s currently-articulated plans could lead to enough people saying yes to that to make a difference.

And a lot depends on whether the Republicans can articulate a strategy that isn’t just plain more of the same—we had financial issues under Bush, and throwing large sums of money at failing financial institutions and cutting taxes just didn’t accomplish anything. “Cut taxes and hope” isn’t very compelling.

It depends on how the economy fares over the next year and into 2010. If it gets better, if the avalanche of foreclosures can be stopped, if unemployment can be stabilized – it means that the harsh criticism the Republicans have leveled at Obama and the Democrats in Congress will come back to bite them in the midterm elections. That would be very, very bad for them, as the last two elections have already brought them to the brink of irrelevance. One more lost election will push them over it.

If it gets worse, then they’ll be able to say, “We told you so,” and they may pick up some seats. It will really come down to how it affects the middle class. For better or worse, they have a lot at stake.