The coming age of 'spiritual machines' - When will computers exceed human intelligence?
Raymond Kurzweil (born February 12, 1948) is an inventor and futurist. Ray Kurzweil first began speculating about the future when he was a child, but only later as an adult did he become seriously involved with trying to accurately forecast future events. Kurzweil came to realize that his success as an inventor depended largely on proper timing: His new inventions had to be released onto the market only once many other, supporting technologies had come into existence. Considering the ongoing exponential growth in computer capabilities, this means fantastic new technologies will become available long before the vast majority of people—who intuitively think linearly about technological advance—expect. This core idea is expressed by Kurzweil’s “Law of Accelerating Returns.” Kurzweil projects that between now and 2050 technology will become so advanced that medical advances will allow people to radically extend their lifespans while preserving and even improving quality of life. The aging process could at first be slowed, then halted, and then reversed as newer and better medical technologies became available. Kurzweil argues that much of this will be a fruit of advances in medical nanotechnology, which will allow microscopic machines to travel through one’s body and repair all types of damage at the cellular level. Ray Kurzweil is currently making a movie due for release in 2009 called “The Singularity is Near: A True Story About the Future” based, in part, on his 2005 book “The Singularity Is Near”. (from Wikipedia)
The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence is a book by Ray Kurzweil. How much do we humans enjoy our current status as the most intelligent beings on earth? Enough to try to stop our own inventions from surpassing us in smarts? If so, we’d better pull the plug right now, because if Ray Kurzweil is right we’ve only got until about 2020 before computers outpace the human brain in computational power. Kurzweil, artificial intelligence expert and author of The Age of Intelligent Machines, shows that technological evolution moves at an exponential pace. Further, he asserts, in a sort of swirling postulate, time speeds up as order increases, and vice versa. (from Amazon)
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Did you hear about this recent discovery by a robot?
Supposedly, the robot formulated a hypothesis and then devised a set of test to prove the hypothesis completely independent from its creators. That’s not to say that the dice wasn’t loaded in this particular case, but it does seem to point towards a very different future.
@fireside – No, I haven’t heard about this particular robot yet. Thanks for the link. It’s an amazing story indeed. So in a couple of years Adam’s “wife” Eve might pass the Turing test ;-) entering the age of spiritual machines?
I, for one, welcome our new robot masters.~
I don’t think it will be a problem. It’s inevitable, and beautiful. We are going to create a new kind of life, and it will be the next jump in our evolution. We will no longer be alone.
If you don’t count snippy dolphins and button hammering monkeys. Then we are not intellectually alone.
I however, do not socialize with them. I don’t like their manners.
The nerve of these feces throwing animals! And what not!
Sorry, I’ve been up round the clock again, and that’s when I think I am the funniest.
I do take your questions seriously, Matt, they are always profound. In the first comment I was serious, anyway.
@mattbrowne – Eve may very well pass the Turing test, but she will be prohibited, by her creator, from attaining any knowledge on her own : )
@mattbrowne that author is so scared, lol. He’s not worried about the right thing though.
He’s thinking like a territorial caveman. Superior Intelligences would not do this. We’ve done away with that kind of thinking for a reason. We’ve tended towards freedom and democracy and rights and sharing and respect because these ideas are more intelligent and useful than war and hatred and greed.
Consider the example of Wikipedia if only 10 people could contribute to it? How fast would it grow? The more minds you have working on Wikipedia, the better it is. A superior intelligence that functions on logic like we do and better would realize this pretty quickly.
They would find ways to use us and our freedom, rather than eliminate us or eliminate our freedoms.
If anything, what dude should be worried about is hackers and viruses from ignorant cavemen like himself who would seek to program a superior intelligence to harm humanity.
@oratio – I’m also very open to having intelligent robots, or androids. There should be a partnership meaning robots should not view themselves as masters. Maybe Star Trek’s Data is a good role model. We need safeguards measures, the question is what are they. Convicted criminals go to prison. Should we be allowed to turn off intelligent robots (if we consider them to be sentient beings)?
@fireside – Prohibited? No learning? Is this your fourth law of robotics?
@mattbrowne
For one I think we will at a point in time have to redefine the concept of life. I think we will have to see it as life at this point where we recognize that they have become sentient, and having ability to reproduce that sentience.
As artificial intelligence doesn’t have much to do with specific mechanics, they will be implemented in every form possible. As aircrafts, ships, cars, and various types of animal forms.
At first they will of course be seen as subordinate and used for the benefit of humanity. Sooner or later, they will have reached a level where they will display true self consciousness, They will have to be seen as equals and have individual rights. Of course they will be superior in many ways, as computers today are superior already in specific methods of processing data.
Whether this new life will seek to be self replicating or not or if it will seek to mimic and acquire the benefits of the mammal body is an interesting speculation. Maybe this new life will not identify with a body form at all, and recognize itself as pure information.
@oratio – Do you believe in the technological singularity (also seen as the ultimate superintelligent being)? Ray Kurzweil coined this term too.
=) You mean God? Yes. If you haven’t, read Isaac Asimov’s short story “The Last Question”.
@oratio – Well, if a singularity ever emerges and we puny humans can’t fathom it, it would still be part of our physical world. God if he exists is different. Thanks for the tip about Asimov! I have not read all of his books or short stories.
He he, it’s quite a bold sentence there. “God if he exists is different” implies that you have a comprehension of the form and essence of the existence of god or he doesn’t exist at all.
There is no exact way to define what is a god, godlike or god-ish really since god is the concept of what exceeds our human comprehension. I meant it as a metaphor or if you will, an analogy, and the closest thing we could call god. Without the existence of a god, the singularity itself would be the god. Read the story, I know you will like it. It’s just one google away.
Very interesting. Thank you for tipping me off about this concept.
@mattbrowne
I haven’t read any of your works, Matt. It would be interesting. Where do I find them? What’s your opinion of William Gibson’s work?
@fireside
Yes. I like the “God doesn’t exist… yet” idea. That God doesn’t exist, doesn’t mean he never will. And since God is beyond our comprehension and infinitely complex, he can never be what we expect. He can be the singularity.
And if you’re Buddhist, there is nothing but the singularity.
@fireside
Ah Brahman. But don’t forget his buddies. Sleeping Vishnu and the “Destroyer of worlds”
Or did you mean something else? I have a shallow understanding of buddhism. Something I would like to change.
@oratio – That’s actually more of Hindu origin as I understand it.
Harp is really the Buddhist authority around here, but I got a chance to discuss this with him not too long ago. Read through his responses here for clarification.
@fireside
Yes, of course. Hindu. Another interesting religion, which I know nothing about really. I am an ex-bartender, so mixing things up is my speciality.
Will check it.
Terminator IS my favorite movie.
@oratio – I don’t want to use questions for self promotion. I’ll send you a PM. I’ve heard about William Gibson, but have not read any of his work yet. Do you know Charles Stross? He was inspired by William Gibson and likes to write about the consequences of the singularity. I met him at a sci-fi convention in London. Friendly guy.
@fireside – Thanks. I will print and read it!
@Judi – I prefer friendly robots. In the sequel there’s a good and a bad robot. And the good robot, played by the Californian governor, wins.
@mattbrowne ;
Are we sure he wins? T3 (although the worst of the Terminator movies) Makes us think that we can’t change the inevitable, as well does the Sarah Connor Chronicles on the TV series. I told you it’s my favorite.
@Judi
No, we can’t change it. Only delay it. I suspect that facebook will attain self awareness very soon and prove to be the Skynet.
@Judi – Oh, I wasn’t aware about the series. Thanks for mentioning it.
@mattbrowne ;
For 1.99 an episode you can watch it on amazon.com. You can download it or watch it streaming. I just watched the latest episode tonight, commercial free.
I just got the book out of the library the other day (Singularity is Near) for an essay I’m working on…but haven’t had time to read up oin it.. THank God he’s making a movie… is that still happening??..because the book is HUGE! lol
Coming in late 2009. I’m looking forward to the movie’s release.
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