General Question
Who deserves most of the blame for the current severe recessions?
Here are a couple of potential culprits:
* Market fundamentalists resisting oversight
* Greedy casino capitalists fueling speculation
* People spending more than they earn
* Rating agencies keeping their clients happy
* Our governments hindering the economy
Any other parties who are to blame?
42 Answers
I think it’s the result of many elements. The banks lending crazy subprime mortgages (ruining US economy), then creating these CDOs and selling them to overseas investors (ruining international economy). THEN, when all that crap fell apart, the Bush administration proposed that we bail the banks out after making their catastrophic business decisions. This was followed by the bailouts being supported and passed by Congress (including Obama, emphatically). Now, we have that same Obama in office with financial advisers encouraging his bad decisions. I.E. The banks broke us, the Bush admin. rewarded them for it, and the Obama admin is continuing and prolonging the pain. But maybe it’s our (the public) fault for allowing this behavior and electing such jerks into office.
This is the greatest thing I’ve ever read.
Those financial advisers encouraging Obama’s bad decisions? They’re highly regarded economists who know a lot more about systemic risk than you do.
The bailout sucks, but the alternative was worse. And they have to pay the money back. What would you have done? And why do you think it would have been better for the country? More importantly, can you support your answer with extensive economic research into systemic risk?
When they were Bush’s advisers, though, they were ok? I don’t doubt that they are smart, but I do doubt that they have the nation’s best interest in mind.
And I don’t need extensive economic research to tell me that bailing out companies is bad. Yeah, it would’ve been painful at first, but then it would be over.
Watch this
Which advisors are you talking about? Bernake? Obama cannot legally replace him. I’m not aware of anyone else who carried over.
And while Paulson completely screwed up the execution of TARP, with the Bush administration predictably failing to ensure transparency and accountability, I don’t think you’ll find many economists arguing that some form of huge capital injection was not essential to ward off economic collapse.
They’re not the same individuals, but Paulson and Geithner are cut from the same mold.
Paulson has described Geithner as ”[a] very unusually talented young man…[who] understands government and understands markets.”
That doesn’t give me reassurance. Just because Obama’s administration claims to be transparent (which we’ve seen no evidence of) doesn’t mean making the same mistakes is acceptable.
I’m done here. Neither of us is going to change the other’s mind and I don’t feel like expending any more energy.
@ubersiren, sorry, I don’t go in for guilt by association.
Also, the Obama administration has been quite transparent regarding its stimulus plan and the budget. The TARP plan is not transparent, but Obama didn’t enact it, and his administration cannot simply revoke the contracts in the previous administration’s plan—that would be illegal (if governments can abolish contracts that would be hugely problematic).
And throwing up your arms and walking away is a pathetic way to cover for not being able to support your claims. If you’re not willing to defend your arguments you make, don’t make them in the first place.
@ubersiren – Great website. I could even watch how US babies are born ;-) But observing the increasing debt seems like watching the micro-chronometer during a 100-meter sprints.
@Qingu – I agree with you. It was a dilemma. Failing banks can destroy the whole system. No stimulus packages at all will increase debt because the failing economies will bring tax revenues to a halt. But we need to change the future system in a way to avoid the following: profits end up in the bonus pools of greedy bankers while losses are handed over to the general public. This is unfair and makes people totally angry. A bonus should not be paid on a yearly basis. Only long term success should be rewarded.
@mattbrowne : The link was supposed to be to the story below the clock, not the clock itself. It’s hilarious.
@Qingu: It’s not the association that bothers me so much as it’s exact duplication of policy.
I’m not giving up, I just didn’t want to expend the energy. I debate on this subject nearly every day and I’m tired of it, but since I’m being accused of covering for the fact that I can’t support my “claims” I have no choice.
You tell me right now how bailing out these companies and banks has saved us. I’m really curious to know. Pushing back the debt to our grandchildren isn’t eliminating the debt. Just as a person with credit card debt doesn’t eliminate his debt by paying off that credit card with another. Where’s your proof?
Here’s my abridged version.
If a company is failing you let them fail. Jobs lost, yes. John, left unemployed, can find new, better job at newer better company which was previously kept down by big government-supported business. John happy now. I know not every situation is that rosy, but that’s how we evolve. Root out the bad and in with the better. Learn from mistakes. That’s how we get rid of the Edsel and commence with the Mustang.
Go ahead and rebut, and I’ll be back after some errands. We are going to play some ball. I’ll be waiting for that proof of yours.
@ubersiren, there’s no “proof” of what would have happened otherwise, but many economists believed that if we didn’t inject capital into the system, the system would freeze and the entire economy would collapse. Your example with Edsels and Mustangs is not at all analogous, because these are just cars. Even large companies are not analagous, because we are talking about institutions that became “too big to fail.” If these banks do not have sufficient capital, then nobody gets capital. Nobody can make loans or take out credit. A huge amount of economic activity relies on it, and the system would fail catastrophically. For historical precedent, look at what the bank runs did during the Great Depression. Banks are the “heart” of our economic system—they pump the circulation of currency. It is unfortunate that a select few banking institutions became big enough to threaten the entire system in case of failure, but that is the situation we had to deal with.
Secondly, you do realize that “bailing out” entails loans, right? We aren’t just giving them money. They need to pay it back.
On debt—this crisis has little to do with the national debt, and wiping out that debt was never a motivation for it. In the same way, you don’t worry about a patient’s long-term health when you are trying to stop the bleeding from a cut-off arm. That said, if the economy fails and no-one has jobs, how on earth are you going to erase debt? Revenue comes from economic activity. If there is no economic activity, then there’s no revenue, and your debt increases even more. Many economists, including Paul Krugman, have argued that stimulating the economy—which is a different beast than the bailouts—will eventually make it much easier to pay off the debt, because it lays the groundwork for vastly increasing economic activity—which, in turn, will increase revenue (recall that we paid off the debt and got a surplus under Clinton, precisely because of increased economic activity).
Also, your analogy between the national debt and credit card debt is flawed, and reflects a simplistic understanding of macro-economics. They do not work the same way. This isn’t to say that national debt is okay, but its effects and the ways to deal with it are quite different.
Out of curiosity, do you have a degree in economics? How much have you studied macroeconomics? I’ve tried to educate myself since this whole mess started, and a lot of it is still quite confusing, but it is quite clear that making simplistic analogies to cars and credit card debt is clouding your understanding of the situation. Because that is simply not how the economy works. The government’s job is to guard against systemic risk to the economy as a whole, and you don’t even seem to be aware that such risk exists.
Greedy companies who expanded and took business out of the country in the gamble of gaining new markets while not progressing with products and services for America. I believe there’s only so many times you can repackage a turd and push it with fancy advertising before no one wants to buy anymore. I see this failure in homebuilding not taking advantage of new technologies to make more efficient energy and ecology friendly homes. I see this failure in the auto industries not to re tool and compete with superior foreign makers. I also see failure in consumers to ignore what is best for their health while looking to healthcare to solve their problems while still eating at least half of their meals from a fast food drive thru window.
@ubersiren, I want to be a little more clear on why your analogies don’t work for what the government is doing.
If a dude defaults on his credit card bill, or goes into massive debt and is forced into bankruptcy, it sucks for him. But the economy as a whole is not affected. Someone else will make the purchases he would make.
If a single corporation makes shitty products and cannot compete on the marketplace, it will be in big trouble. It may have to sell itself or go into bankruptcy. Its employees may have to find other jobs. But the economy as a whole is not really affected that much. As long as other companies are healthy, then those employees can find new jobs.
If a single small bank screws over its customers and fudges its financial instruments, it may well reap the whirlwind later, in which case it may have to sell itself or go out of business. The people who depended on the bank for capital will need to find someplace else to take out loans. But the economy as a whole is not threatened, because other banks would be healthy.
The idea of “survival of the fittest” applies only at certain scales of economic activity. But once you get to a certain large scale, then you’re not talking about surviving within an economic environment—you’re talking about the health of the economic environment itself.
For example, if all the major car companies go out of business, that has huge effects not limited to just those companies and their employees. Few of them are going to be able to quickly find other jobs. That leads to huge unemployment, which means less overall consumers, which means lots of other companies lose money. It gets bad enough, more companies go out of business—then their employees can’t find work, can’t make purchases, which makes still more companies lose money, and so on. It’s a death spiral.
With banking: if all the major banks are insolvent, then people can’t simply go to another bank to get loans. Nobody will be able to get loans. A huge number of businesses depend on weekly or monthly loans just to do business—for example, supermarkets take out loans to put food on the shelves, and pay it back later after selling it. Car dealers depend on loans. Many large stores take out loans just to pay their employees. The reason “Black Friday” is called “Black Friday” is because, for many businesses, it is the first day of the year where they actually make profit—the rest of their time is dependent on loans. So if banks do not have capital to give out loans, the entire economy collapses in a death spiral.
That is what I mean by “systemic risk.” That is why your analogies do not apply to the situations that Obama has to deal with. They are small-scale, and we are talking about a large-scale. The same rules do not apply.
@Qingu : Yeah, it sucks for the guy. But it also sucks for the companies who are out of the money when the guy goes bankrupt. Say he gets an iPod with his American Express and doesn’t pay the bill. I don’t know how another consumer can buy it if it’s laying on his kitchen table.
Just as the credit card dude made bad transactions, certain companies do. Saving those businesses which continue to do damage on themselves, their employees, their customers, and eventually the taxpayer isn’t acceptable in my book.
I think survival of the fittest works just fine on a large scale. That doesn’t mean that if a large scale bank or something comes crashing down, there wouldn’t be catastrophe to follow. But it would need to be replaced. Possibly by a bigger, better bank. Just because it’s big, doesn’t have to mean it’s bad. If this new bank learned from the selfish mistakes the others made, it could be fantastic. I’m not opposed to big corporations, just my tax dollar propping it up.
If smaller businesses depend so much on loans from banks, wouldn’t they want to be involved in the most reliable and secure bank? Or do you mean to say that it doesn’t matter how they get the money, as long as they get the money? Furthermore, if a small business spends most of its year in the red, is it successful? In essence, propping up shitty big banks and businesses helps prop up small shitty businesses…? I am very close to several business owners and all of them would absolutely freak out if they ever slipped into the red. It’s just not acceptable. I know “the red” has become the American way, but I just can’t see how that’s right.
Bailing out these banks doesn’t just lead to massive debt to those we’ve borrowed from, but it leads to inflation from the massive, senseless printing of money. Actually, it’s not even printed anymore- it’s typed into accounts. That certainly affects the economy, right?
@ubersiren, no companies will go out of money if one person goes bankrupt. One person’s bankruptcy is not a systemic risk. You missed the point entirely.
If a big bank fails and causes systemic economic collapse, nothing would replace it. The economy would be in a death spiral. Again, that is the whole point—and you missed it.
Smaller businesses probably do want to be involved in reliable and secure banks. The problem is that almost all of the largest banks were not, in fact, reliable and secure, because of lax regulation—and they hid their unreliability from investors and borrowers. You have a naive view of economic transactions between “rational actors.” In reality, few people can be economically rational actors because they are unaware of—or simply ignore—important economic information. It’s an outdated model.
Your personal anecdotes about your businessowner friends are as irrelevant as your personal belief that survival of the fittest works on a macroeconomic scale.
As for inflation, that is simply not a problem right now. We are actually worried about the opposite—deflation. (Source.) Again, you don’t seem to understand the big-picture problem here. Why are you worrying about inflation when economists are worried about deflation?
The Federal Reserve. We are now trusting the same people who got us into this mess, out of this mess.
Even Alan Greenspan himself wrote about it:
“When business in the United States underwent a mild contraction in 1927, the Federal Reserve created more paper reserves in the hope of forestalling any possible bank reserve shortage. More disastrous, however, was the Federal Reserve’s attempt to assist Great Britain who had been losing gold to us because the Bank of England refused to allow interest rates to rise when market forces dictated (it was politically unpalatable). The reasoning of the authorities involved was as follows: if the Federal Reserve pumped excessive paper reserves into American banks, interest rates in the United States would fall to a level comparable with those in Great Britain; this would act to stop Britain’s gold loss and avoid the political embarrassment of having to raise interest rates.
The “Fed” succeeded; it stopped the gold loss, but it nearly destroyed the economies of the world in the process. The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market—triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late: by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed. Great Britain fared even worse, and rather than absorb the full consequences of her previous folly, she abandoned the gold standard completely in 1931, tearing asunder what remained of the fabric of confidence and inducing a world-wide series of bank failures. The world economies plunged into the Great Depression of the 1930’s.
With a logic reminiscent of a generation earlier, statists argued that the gold standard was largely to blame for the credit debacle which led to the Great Depression. If the gold standard had not existed, they argued, Britain’s abandonment of gold payments in 1931 would not have caused the failure of banks all over the world. (The irony was that since 1913, we had been, not on a gold standard, but on what may be termed “a mixed gold standard”; yet it is gold that took the blame.) But the opposition to the gold standard in any form—from a growing number of welfare-state advocates—was prompted by a much subtler insight: the realization that the gold standard is incompatible with chronic deficit spending (the hallmark of the welfare state). Stripped of its academic jargon, the welfare state is nothing more than a mechanism by which governments confiscate the wealth of the productive members of a society to support a wide variety of welfare schemes. A substantial part of the confiscation is effected by taxation. But the welfare statists were quick to recognize that if they wished to retain political power, the amount of taxation had to be limited and they had to resort to programs of massive deficit spending, i.e., they had to borrow money, by issuing government bonds, to finance welfare expenditures on a large scale.
Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy’s tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government’s promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. A large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus, government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds which—through a complex series of steps—the banks accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets. The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy’s books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government bonds financed by bank credit expansion.
In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.
This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.”
Gold is not a “safe store” of value. Its value decreases as soon as someone digs more of it up from underground. And imagine what would happen if scientists figure out how to make artificial gold.
Money is a concept. It is an abstract representation of property. It is not property itself. A chunk of gold—the physical property that you keep in your house—is different from the abstract representation of that chunk of gold’s value, which fluctuates as more gold is discovered and traded and used.
I guess ultimately what I’m saying is that maybe the system needs to fail. The whole system. It’s not working. We need to hit the refresh button on the economy and update it with new and different ideas. That’s what I’m driving at with the itty bitty analogies you claim are not comparable. I can say the same for my son’s blocks. His first tower of blocks was crooked and toppled over despite all his efforts to save it. “Boom!” he says. But he learned where his mistakes were and they will gradually improve. But if mom steps in and adjusts the blocks, he’ll never learn. I can say the same thing for small businesses, huge businesses, national economy, global economy, or the whole universe. If it’s not working, start over. I once heard a intelligence defined as the ability to recognize failure and not to repeat its mistakes. We need an economic collapse. We need a Darwinian flush. If all are failing equally, there is no “fittest,” there’s just obliteration. If it comes to that, then that’s what is necessary.
I do agree with you that money is a concept. It used to be backed by gold. Yes, more can always be dug up, but just like oil, it’s not immediately replaceable. The more we need, the more will be dug, the more that’s dug, the more difficult it is to find, the more difficult it is to find, the higher the value. Since Woodrow f****ing Wilson, though, we don’t care if it’s backed by anything- even good intentions. In order for the economy to remain functional, money must be kept valuable. So, printing it at the Fed’s will does nobody any favors.
When you buy gold using paper dollars, the price of golf also fluctuates as the value of the dollar fluctuates. Look at the price of god over the past 30 years and you will see the rampant inflation of the dollar
@ubersiren, Obama wants to update the system with new and different ideas, as he’s indicated in his economic plans and most of his speeches.
The difference is that he wants to avoid an incredibly painful transition that could literally be as bad as the Great Depression. I’m not sure you understand how painful “Darwinian failure” would be in this case. It wouldn’t just affect America, either. The Great Depression arguably led to the economic and social destabilization of Europe, conditions which gave rise to the Nazis.
If Obama can do that with bailout—that is, by loaning stupid banks shitloads of money to ensure that capital isn’t frozen and the system doesn’t collapse—then I think it’s worth it. The fact that you would rather choose “obliteration” says more about you than it says about the morality of the bailout.
About gold: how is printing money different from digging up more gold? Both cause “inflation.” Backing money with gold means nothing—it simply chains the value to a shiny yellow metal that also has no inherent value. In any case, the inflation point is a non-issue. Deflation is the current threat.
@chris6137 – And now there’s plenty of cheap money again. 0% interest. The Chinese are very worried. Inflation would seriously hurt them as well.
It seems the Chinese are looking to diversify their holdings and have been buying up precious metals.
@qingu
You can print in infinite amount of money, as bush and Obama have shown. It would be much harder to dig up an infinite amount of gold.
@Qingu – Deflation can be created if people stop buying enough goods. It can happen with or without cheap money lending.
True. But do you think it makes sense to worry about inflation when the problem right now is deflation? (Well, deflation is the symptom of the problem, which is that people are losing jobs left and right and cannot make purchases?)
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
Thomas Jefferson
I think the more current threat is either stagflation or hyper-inflation. How can you not think inflation will be a threat with all of the trillions of dollars being pumped into the economy?
The reason we got into this mess, was due to inflation. You can not fight inflation, with more inflation. I do not know too much about economics, but that makes plenty of sense to me.
The reason we got into this mess was not inflation. It wasn’t even a significant factor.
And if you do not know much about economics, why are you arguing about it as if you do?
Because if read my posts for the past 2 years on fluther, I must know enough to have been talking about everything that has been happening for over 3 years and watching it all come true right before my eyes.
I am a Ron Paul supporter, and the way that he describes what is going on with economics, makes a hell of a lot more sense than the “too big to fail” and the secrecy being involved with which banks got what money.
It was inflation that got us here. How can you say it wasnt even a significant factor? We can argue about regulation and deregulation all day long. The bottom line is without the ability to infinitely fund things, these bubbles would not become nearly as big or nearly as bad when they do burst.
What, precisely, does inflation have to do with the current economic crisis?
And I also oppose the secrecy of TARP funds. It is unfair to pin that on Obama. That legislation and those contracts were signed before he took office.
@Qingu – Just to share this with and let you know that we agree on this: Barack Obama is doing a great job handling the current crisis.
I would highly recommend reading Ron Paul’s The Revolution: A Manifesto to get a simplistic, different view to what is going on. Here is an excerpt:
“Inflation of the money supply also produces financial bubbles and instability. The monetary inflation of the 1990’s helped yield $145 bullion in profits for the NASDAQ companies between 1996 and 2000. The entire amount was then lost in a single year- not to mention the trillions of dollars of paper losses in stock values from their peak in 2000. Politicians are all tears and pity about large stock-market losses, but they never make a connection between the bubble economy and the monetary inflation generated by the Federal Reserve. Congress had chosen instead to blame the analysts for misleading investors- a drop in the bucket compared to the misleading information for which the Federal Reserve has been responsible, what with the artificially low interest rates it has brought about and a financial market made flush with generous new credit at every sign of a correction over the past ten years. By preventing the liquidation of bad debt and the elimination of malinvestment and overcapacity, the Federal Reserve’s actions help keep financial inflated and make the eventual collapse all the more severe.
It is this, the Fed’s policy of artificially cheap credit, that caused the housing bubble that has caused so many Americans so much grief. Banks, awash in reserves created out of thin air by the Fed, began making mortgage loans to just about anyone. With credit freely available, people bought larger and more expensive homes than would otherwise make sense. They were set up for disaster, when reality would inevitably reassert itself amid the fantasy world the Fed had created. Using Money Zero Maturity figures, we find that the increase in mortgage debt since the 2001 recession is equal to the Fed’s increase in the money supply. That is where the new money went, and it is where the housing bubble came from.”
You are confusing “inflation” with “artificially inflating bubbles.”
It’s also possible that Ron Paul is confusing these two concepts. The man seems unhinged whenever I watch him speak.
Look at the oil bubble, housing bubble, stock market bubble.
All are artificially inflated bubbles, due to inflation of the monetary supply.
“If A then B” does not imply “If B then A.”
You (probably) cannot have artificially inflated bubbles without inflation.
You can indeed have inflation without artificially inflated bubbles.
Blaming inflation for economic bubbles is like blaming DNA replication for genetic defects.
You can’t have genetic defects without DNA replication. But that doesn’t mean we should get rid of DNA replication.
Inflation is a mechanism for the bubbles. It’s not a “cause.” There are a variety of causes for the economic bubbles, most of them involving nefarious activity by people who exploit loopholes in government regulation. Most recently, the unregulated credit default swap market and the poor (and/or corrupt) regulation of the ratings agencies. These loopholes allowed investors to repackage high-risk mortgages into the opaque ticking time bombs to trade—inflating the bubble.
Monetary inflation has little to do with it. Yes, inflation happens during bubbles. It basically always happens at a gradual pace because that’s simply the nature of a growth-based capitalistic economy—a nature which makes bubbles possible. But you don’t destroy the entire nature of DNA replication to get rid of genetic defects. Similarly, you don’t destroy the nature of our entire growth-based economy—which allows inflation—to get rid of the specific causes of bubbles.
I would have to disagree about the nature of our growth-based economy (which you basically just admitted that our economy is a ponzi scheme). Growth, just like value, is all about perception.
Where one may see growth, another may see the opposite. Sure, we built these big cities and “grew our economy,” but because we are a growth-based economy, that means that people(or should I say companies) will do anything to grow. Ex. Let’s knock down another rain forest, so it helps our economy.
Capitalism, or a growth-based economy, cares about one thing and one thing only, growth.
I guess we will have to agree to disagree on our views, because our world philosophies are obviously much different.
I dont really like your comparison to DNA, either. Money is man-made, DNA is not.
How did I admit our economy is a ponzi scheme? Ponzi schemes are based on zero-sum games. Healthy economic growth is based on technological progression, a non-zero-sum game.
Do you understand the difference between a zero and non-zero-sum game?
Also, I only made the reference to DNA to help you understand. You were committing a logical fallacy. Here’s another analogy:
Guns are used to murder people. Therefore, to prevent murders, we should ban guns.
Do you see the fallacy there? It’s the same fallacy as this statement:
Inflation is used to artificially inflate economic bubbles. Therefore, to prevent economic bubbles, we should ban inflation.
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