Are we just fooling ourselves with these questions and avoiding the eventual loss of our economic sytem due to oil running out?

People have been predicting imminent peak oil for the past 75 years. Ever hear the story of the boy who cried wolf?

The latest geological data, from all of the oil companies is irrefutable. (Shell, Total predict 12 years maximum). It definitely is not crying wolf..Google it, you will find not one scientist predicting more than 20 years.

Indeed. And what do you say to all the scientists going back to the 1920s, with similar irrefutable data, each predicting that worldwide oil supply would not last more than another 15 to 20 years?

I never knew the key to preserving our oil supply lied in not going online. Oil will eventually run out yes. Then we will be forced to use alternative energy sources by necessity. The world will not implode when the oil runs out.

I would make the hypothesis that predictions from the 1920’s were not as scientifically accurate as the plethora of research available today. Huppert’s peak oil theory only originated in the 60’s. My question, if you see it as a valid one, might lead to some investigation if you have not actually researched same. If you have a different opinion, that is fine too.

I would have to disagree with those who don’t think that peak oil is a huge problem,. Thus in spite of listing great answers, for me they would be uninformed as great as some might feel they are. But I guess that is what makes this site, after my whole 3 days here, interesting. I will be curious to see if some have a slant that is different than what I have read so far and will await other responses. Thanks for your definitive feelings, one and all.

I think the whole peak oil thing is an article of faith more than anything else. It’s a really nice, big loud drum to bang. But people have been banging it so earnestly and for so long that it’s impossible to take anybody seriously. Really? That’s what you told us in 1940! And in 1960! And in 1973! And in 1979! And every year since 1986! Why should we believe you this time?

That said, I think we got a preview last summer of what will happen when oil really does start to run out. It’s not going to run out immediately—it will be more and more difficult to find and extract, and when the scarcity goes down the price will go up. Just like what happened last summer. When that happens, there will be enough of a profit motive for research into alternative energies, and that research will happen. Until the alternative energies are in place, people will economize—buying hybrids instead of SUVs, for instance.

It will cause changes—the suburbs will be far less attractive when gas is $8 a gallon, for instance. But it won’t be the end of the economy.

As the price of oil increases, alternatives will replace it. The higher the price, the more certain alternatives make sense.
For example, hydrogen starts to makes sense when gasoline hits $7.80 per gallon and electricity is $0.12 per kWh. Let’s hope that takes a while.
Just for the record I spent all day today working on this issue. It’s my job.

And thus the huge changes to our economic system, maybe even turning off our computers? Thus the essence of my point.

@The_Compassionate_Heretic GA!

If it is someday discovered that condescending attitudes will eliminate oil shortages then we’ll in great shape.

They are always re-estimating peak oil. I really don’t think they know. They can only do an estimate on known oil resources, which are just that – estimates. They recently found oil on Greenland. They might find it somewhere else.

We are not going to run out of energy because we run out of oil. Our whole civilization depends on energy, and we will always need more, not less. Fission, fusion, renewable energy. We will always have the energy production to keep it all running.

Yeees…THE APOCALYPSE IS NEAR!!!!!!!!!

Well, I am not an apocalyptic soothsayer, nor a doomster. Science suggests there is an imminent problem. Alternate energies that are suggested feasible do not seem economically plausible in solving the problem. The answers, so far, not convincing me in the slightest.

I do not understand, It seems the more people are willing to pay the more oil they find. Hmmmmmm…

Actually, that is not correct, may have been 15 years ago.

The days of Jed Clampett Shootin’ at some food, and up from the ground come a bubblin’ crude. are gone.
The low hanging fruit was gone about 15 years ago. As we keep taking the easiest to reach, it gets more and more expensive to pull it out of the ground or process to make it useable. When prices are high, is it worth working hard to really reach those apples high up on the tree – even with a ladder on top of the picnic table.
Do you think they are drilling vertically down 2 miles, horizontally 5 miles and diagonally 3 miles because it is cheap? They’re doing it because they have to.
Here’s an interesting physics thought experiment for you. Given a gallon of oil contains 130,000 BTU and weighs 6 pounds. How much energy does it take to lift it one foot? one foot pound. How far down do you need to go before the energy to lift it is more than the energy contained? (Pretty far) But oil is not pure. You get other junk with it when you lift it out of the ground so that adds to the mass. I’ve seen some numbers that say you need a ton of shale to pull out a gallon. You can google Surface Retorting or In-situ Retorting. The process alone costs $60 per barrel.
As the price crosses certain thresholds, different alternatives will make sense. When heating oil crossed $3 per gallon I heated my house with wood. Now that’s back to $2.00 I am using oil again. But I’m ready to switch to wood when oil prices inevitably go up. You will do the same with other alternative fuels, including electricity.
There will be plenty of oil. It just will get more and more expensive.

Am I the only person on earth who thinks oil running out is a good thing? Listen oil runs out and all of the suddon we have to fuel cars and machines with hydrogen fuel cells and alternative fuel sorces that do not create imissions oil running out is going to stop wars clean a hugh percentage of our air and stop those Crooked sobs from controling our market and getting rich off our economy going to shit. The sooner it’s gone the better for all of us trussssst me

@covedude I agree that forcing the need for alternative energy sources is a good thing. But I do not agree that running out of oil is a good thing. The Earth running out of a natural resources is not a good thing. Forget about how it affects us and think of the possibilities about how it may affect the Earth in ways we have yet to understand.

Oil won’t just end one day. The price will keep rising until we replace it with something else. We’ll just use it for important things like making plastics and higher end chemicals.

@Lupin True.

@cwilbur I remember the story about the boy who cried wolf. Do you remember the ending?

@covedude you’re not the only one. I think oil (petroleum) is too valuable to burn.

@Yetanotheruser: Yes, eventually there was a wolf, and Bad Things Happened because he had cried wolf so many times that nobody believed him.

Eventually we will run out of oil. But I have no faith in the environmentalist lobby to tell us when that will be, because they’ve got so much to gain by freaking people out, and because they’ve cried wolf so many times; and I have no faith in the oil companies to tell us when that will be, because they’ve got so much to gain by oil running out and prices going up.