In my experience, this question is much too complicated to answer without at least knowing your location, intended start date, rough house size, type of construction and level of finish. All of these things affect at least 10% of the cost of the house each.
Location and construction type will be the primary determinants of the final cost. Figure 4%-10% inflation per year, depending on the location. We use 8% as an aggregate, though some things (copper pipe, wood panels) move a lot more than others. If you bid something out now and don’t build for 3 years, it may cost 30% more to build. Are you in an area that requires special consideration for: high wind, earthquakes, heavy snow, flood-plains. Are house in your area typically conventional wood framed, masonry, brick (or even concrete or steel!)? All of these things impact costs.
I say this, not to tell you the answer can’t be found, but to emphasize that the best way to get an estimate for the cost of building anything is to speak directly to the people that do this kind of work in your area. This is what I do when we are estimating a new shopping center or apartment building. We call subcontractors who do the various work we will require and we get budget numbers from them. Then we validate those numbers based on the actual costs of previous projects and take into account the location, inflation, size, etc.
Since you can’t validate numbers against your own historical building costs, ask someone you know who recently built a house in area how much they spent per square foot for just the house (and underground utilities and building-related sitework, but not the land or landscaping). Then speak to several contractors in the area (At least 3) that you have heard good things about. Realtors are a decent place to get a referral since they know who the local builders are and should know which ones build houses that command above-average prices (per square foot) on the resale market. Usually this is a sign that that contractor works with good designers and builds sellable homes. I would also recommend, if possible, using good design-build contractors over hiring an architect directly and then bidding his plans. For one, residential architects are notoriously bad at estimating construction costs, so when you give him your “budget” there is little chance he will be able to design to it since he doesn’t really know what it costs to build things. Additionally, you will have to manage both the architect and the contractor, which doubles your pain.
The traditional (design-BID-build) process entails you hiring an architect and him creating plans (the design part) to give to you based on your desires and your budget, and then you hiring a contractor (the bid part) to build what is on the plans (the build part). Design-build simply cuts you out of the direct architect-manager role. You find a contractor that is adept at building the types of homes you like and he is responsible for the design (based on your requirements, of course) and for managing the designer. The design-build contract obligates him to give you what you have agreed upon up-front for the agreed-upon price (unless changes are made along the way). In this way, you avoid paying an architect 40k up front for a design that he thinks will cost 300k to build but which actually ends up costing 400k. You still end up paying for the architectural design (through the contractor), but the contractor knows how much it will cost to build things and can keep the project in line with your expectations, resulting in overall cost savings (as well as taking less time overall to complete the project). He can also better let you know if your expectations and your pocket book are out-of-sync.
So, to boil it down…
Step 1: Talk to friends and realtors and get the names of at least 3 (preferably design-build) contractors in the area known for doing good work.
Step 2: Ask friends that you know that have built homes recently what their houses cost to build (good friends should be willing to help you avoid a costly mistake!)
Step 3: Solicit proposals from at least contractors you would like to work with. Get references, portfolios of past projects similar to what you are looking for and general information regarding levels of finish/quality and cost.
Step 4: Based on the completeness of the proposals, the rapport between you, and the perceived ability of the contractor “getterdone”, select a contractor.
Step 5: Nail down the “program requirements” or the specific design characteristics that are important to you and finalize the design-build contract amount.
At this point you should have a very good idea of the final construction costs, schedule, and design elements. Before you sign the contract, make sure you have a third-party review it for scope (what is being proposed to be constructed), explict exclusions (what the contractor is specifically NOT going to do), implicit exclusions (typically, if it isn’t explicitly state that it will be done or if it is not necessary for something to be done in order to satisfy the “program” requirements, then it will not be done and it should be assumed that it will not be done). A lawyer is useful here, but not necessary. Friends who have been through the building process before can help you recognize pitfalls that they may have fallen into.
It’s a lot more work than just accepting someone’s word on a message board, but trust me, it will be worth it.
Good luck!