How accurate would you say your weatherman is?

Pretty accurate.

Damn. I’m going out to see the release of a Wedell Seal… I don’t have more time to answer this.

Weather prediction is really hard. Really really hard. There are so many variables, and not enough tools (good tools) to use to predict and interpret the variables. In the past 50 years, weather prediction has improved with advanced computing systems and technology, but we still have a long way to go. Of course, the science (that’s what it is) will advance in the future, but I doubt it will ever be 100% accurate. Perfection is really never possible in any natural science.

About your local news: remember that those weather men and meteorologists are predicting for a large area, not just your small community. Probability of rainfall is based on past weather data: 100% chance of rain means that in the last 100 situations where the atmosphere was just as it is for that time and place, 100 of them had rain. But this changes very fast over a very short distance. Just because you didn’t see rain in the city limits of Saint Louis, doesn’t mean it didn’t happen outside of town.

Weather prediction is imperfect, but it gives a general idea of what to expect and plan for. Also, weather people like to err on the side of “bad”.. If they say the day will be sunny with no rain and it pours, people will be pissed. If they say there is a chance of rain, and you don’t see a drop, most people are happy about this.

In Los Angeles, everyone is a weatherperson and nearly always accurate (you just have to be able to say: today it will be 85 degrees and sunny with no precipitation in the forecast for at least the next two years). See ya….Gary/wtf

haha its the only job I know where you can be consistently inaccurate and yet still have your job. Got to love it

Let’s just say that if weatherpeople performed any other job with that accuracy level they would all be unemployed.

I think increased scientific understanding of global weather patterns and technology have both improved the field significantly and will continue to do so.

@mass_pike4 Not so much in Philadelphia… we had a guy who predicted the “Storm of the Century” one winter, turned out to be about 4 inches of snow, which warmed and turned to slush… but because of the hype, many businesses sent people home… all around the same time, which crated unbelievable gridlock everywhere.

What normally would have taken me less than an hour to get home, even in snowy weather, took me three and a half hours because of the gridlocked traffic

Basically after that, he was run out of town… (he’s back though, I can’t figure out why… BOLARIS!)

@mass_pike4 :: Jim Cramer might disagree.

He must be doing something right, we have weather every day.

@christine215 We had quite similar events recently in Holland when weather alarms were issued which turned out to be unnessecary (afterwards). In all fairness I believe that a weatherman issues a warning only with the best intentions. A warning is meant to prevent damage and dangerous situations, not as an extra reason to get out of work early or to make our insignificant lives more exciting. However, like you said, the media likes to hype everything they can get their hands on. To the point where weather alarm’s might actually be economically more damaging than an actual storm.

I have to say lately the regular weather reports are very accurate. Don’t know why though, it might have something to do with today’s technology.

@johnpowell If only we could make that clip mandatory in every future media or history class.

@johnpowell: Classic!

I hate my weatherman! He always says “there’s a chance of rain today.”

Well, when today?

How much chance?

There’s a fucking chance of rain almost every twenty-four hour period. Can’t you tell me, in the morning, when it’s likely to rain before 6 pm this evening?

What’s the use? Might as well not listen.

we try not to give our Weather man in Buffalo a hard time for the most part, the weather is pretty sporadic here.

@ABoyNamedBoobs03 As in, sometimes you do have weather, and other times you don’t?

Absolutely horrible. Most days, there is a 50% chance of rain, and it won’t rain. Days it does rain, it usually isn’t forecasted. If the weathermen say we’re going to get 8” of snow, it’s usually a dusting that melts the next day. I don’t even know why I check anymore.

I had to laugh yesterday, I checked the weather around 11:00 AM and the temperature was 85 degrees. I then looked at the forecast for the day and the high was 78.

I read the technical discussions of the main models daily, and make my own predictions. Sometimes they are fair, sometimes middling, never terrible, never excellent.

When they say “it’s definitely going to rain today”, it’s sunny.

When they say “slight chance of morning showers”, it pours all afternoon through night.

When they say “blizzard likely” we get 2 inches or less of snow.

I

One of the things I hate most when people find out I’m a meteorologist: “Oh, haha, you get paid to be wrong. Haha.” Very original. Go die now.

I hate this question.. time for me to leave now.

Balls percent accurate , 9 out of 10 times the weather here is not whats been predicted

Well, the weather lady I watch, is accurate to a point, like today, she said after three, expect a dusting of snow into the overnight hours, well, it’s started. I have never had any issues with any of the meteorologist’s out here. Snow funny lol.

I live in Missouri and there is a saying I’ve always heard “If you don’t like the weather, wait 15 minutes” So we don’t really care for the weathermen lol…most of the time they get pretty close…considering

I consult several weather prediction sources daily and they usually come pretty close on average. It’s very difficult, because our weather reporting area includes so many different climate zones, they can predict rain and be 100% accurate for the valley, but in the foothills, we don’t get a single drop.

I live in Phoenix, Arizona where all the weatherman has to say is, “it’s going to be sunny and hot today” about 340 days out of each year. Simple. The other times he says, “there is a 40% chance of rain today” which translates into, “you’re getting no precipitation at all so you’re basically SOL” because the rain never arrives. Our weathermen (and women) are very accurate in the desert.

I count on my local weather folks when I go out for a swim or a hike. The five day forecast is pretty good for general planning. They post frequent updates and I check again within the 24 hour period before going out. They usually do a really good job, and I can count on them. I love Seattle. :^>

Well first off, I typically get my weather from the internet (wunderground.com to be specific), not from news programs on the TV, nor the newspaper.
The problem is, here in SoCal you can get away with “Sunny, 80 degrees” most of the time (June-Sept being hotter. Nov-Feb being colder, cloudy and 10–20% chance of precipitation).
But the websites seem to get that right. I just hate when I see 10% chance of precipitation and not having it, it gets my hopes up :(.

Sure, some day we can control the weather. We just have to dig our Stargate out of Antarctica and/or Egypt, dial to PX7–941 and steal the Touchstone. Simple enough.

This is my weather girl. Who cares how accurate she is?

Extremely accurate. They get immediate feedback which makes them more able to make accurate predictions. Um, also, we just analyzed this in my statistics course. They are ridiculously accurate. In general, but also ‘round these parts in specific.

One of the weatherwoman in the Pittsburgh area is named Julie Bologna. She makes a point to pronounce it “Bo low nya”. I still think its funny though.

@filmfann You have a hot weather girl AND YOU LIVE IN SAN FRANCISCO. I’m green with envy.

@deni I live in Concord, which is just like San Francisco, except we don’t have beaches, culture, or good weather. We run about 30 degrees hotter than the City.

@filmfann Aw :( one of my favorite things about sf is its weather. Always seems to be breezy and cool which I love. Oh well, at least you’re not 2500 miles away :)

How accurate would you say weather-related satellite data is?

1970: Not very accurate
2009: Very accurate

How accurate would you say your weather-related computer models are?

1970: Not very accurate
2009: Very accurate

How good would you say your weather-related computing power is?

1970: Slow
2009: Very fast

How good are weathermen and weatherwomen translating all of this into something people understand?

1970: Boring
2009: Highly entertaining (most of the time)

You live near St.Louis, too? The forecasts are complete bull!