What are the odds?

50% unless if someone actually knows the answer or has an “inkling”.

It’s 50% (assuming a yes/no answer).

That is, you only get to answer once, and assuming the odds of the answer are 50/50, it doesn’t matter how many people you have in the car.

Yeah, I’m going with 50%.

I digress. Perhaps each person’s odds aren’t 50/50, since it isn’t a yes/no answer. There could be any number of correct answers (presumably infinite, although most people can at least rule out the ridiculous).

@Poser Then the odds are in your favor to not do a Video Bonus question, just walk away with whatever winnings you have.

Unforunately, unlike table games, the odds cannot work out over time. That is, if the odds were 53% that you would get the right answer, it would (over time) pay off to take the double or nothing. HOWEVER, you walk away with nothing 47% percent of the time, but you cannot play the game again.

Okay, there are is merely right or wrong and a 50/50 chance of each so it’s basically the equivalent of tossing four coins in the hopes to get one or more of htem to turn up Heads.

There are 16 possible outcomes of which only two have them all in agreement and only one of them results in none of them knowing the answer (which is also one of the two situations where all of them will agree.) so the odds of them having at least one person with the correct answer under those conditions is pretty good: 15/16 or ~94%.

However, because of how groups work, it will generally take at least 2 people having the correct answer to convince the others. There are 6 possible ways that two people will have the correct answer, and 5 more that either 3 or all 4 will.

In other words, there is a 5/16 (~31%) chance that a majority will be correct thus leading the group to give a correct response. a 6/16 (37.5%) chance of a squabble that could go either way, and a 5/16 (~31%) chance of them screwing the pooch.

Based on that, one would think that the odds are truly 50/50, but in reality the odds are that if 2 (and only 2) of them have the correct answer, the other two will have different wrong answers or that one or both will just not know, leading to a 2–1-1 vote or at least one abstention and thus the group will be more likely to give a correct response.

@jerv Fantastic answer. I hadn’t thought of it that way. Of course, like I said in the question, that ignores the various strengths of personalities and other group dynamics. For instance, someone with a very strong personality might be more likely to sway the rest of the group toward their answer. Of course, they could be equally likely regardless of whether their answer was right or wrong, so it could be a wash.

Ultimately, it would seem that the higher your numbers, the more likely to come up with a correct response (thus the audience on Millionaire tends to have something like an 80% correct answer record, or so I once heard).