Do you think there is a chance that Obama will be a one-term president or is it too soon to tell?

I think there is time for the economy to recover more, which I think will be the key to whether Obama rebounds enough for a second term.

When I think we have George Bush a second term, I say “Why not?”

Obama has two term president written all over him.
As far as Masochistic Massachussetts goes, it has had a number of Republican Governors, so there is a large Rep. presence, but I think the media is making more of this than there is.

It is far too soon to tell. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton both faced very low polling numbers early in their administrations, but rebounded in time for reelection. @Marina has it right, it’s all about the economy. I would expect to see some loss of Democratic seats in congress in the midterm elections, but Obama’s likelihood of being reelected is all about the economy and a little about the wars. If the economy rebounds (and it is likely to) and is doing well in 2012, and if most U.S. troops are out of Iraq and Afghanistan in such a way that it can be spun as victory easily enough, then he’ll be virtually unbeatable. If only the economy is good but we’re still stuck in Afghanistan and/or Iraq, then it might be a little tougher, but he’ll still probably win.

Frankly, from a political strategy standpoint, he couldn’t be in a better spot. The threat of a prolonged depression exists, but in all likelihood the economy can go nowhere but up. By 2012 most people will likely be doing better than they are now, by far. That will mean a lot. He can sink as low as he needs to in popularity now, as long as the 3 year effects of his actions are positive, then his current popularity won’t matter (except to congresspersons seeking reelection).

Congresspersons is in the Google Chrome spell check dictionary. Heeheee

Oh – you all are cheering me up on a gray Monday morning. Thanks!

The economy in three years will be pretty good. I majored in econ. I have graphs all over my walls. Dems will take a bit of a beating in 2010 but Obama should be good for 2012.

I heard someone the other night who’s quote I thought answered this perfectly: “It took eight years, and many would say more, to get ourselves into this. how can anyone think it’s reasonable to call this administrations ‘rescue agenda’ a failure after one?”

Revisit it in about 16 months, where we are then will be a lot more predictive of where we’ll be going when the polls open.

Until then, write your representatives and tell them to pick up the pace, work together, and get some concrete things accomplished: http://www.congress.org/

One term for sure and that deal was sealed after his first month in office. His teleprompter stands a fantastic chance of being re-elected though.

He is going to ensure that he will be not only a one-term president, but a quite mediocre president if he doesn’t change his governing style.

If tomorrow he signed an executive order terminating Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, announced that all government workers in homosexual relationships had the same civil rights as any other married couple, pulled the health care bill and forced it into reconciliation with Single Payer as the only acceptable paradigm, pulled the troops out of Iraq and turned Afghanistan over to the Airforce, then maybe he would reserve for himself a place in history the way FDR did.

But his method of bland accommodation doesn’t appease the haters on the right, and doesn’t achieve the agenda of the people who elected him.

Right now, he’s just a smooth-talking, pusillanimous, lying Chcago pol.

@Cruiser The only teleprompter difference between Bush and Obama is that Obama is better at reading his.

So if the option to Obama-lite in 2012 is a tea-bagger?

The presidents ability to shine is occuring right now with Haiti. popular opinion may improve, if he handles the situation in Haiti properly. the world is watching not only the rescue efforts in Haiti, but also how President Obama handles himself and the government. this could be a big feather in his cap, if Haiti is handled correctly.

And what is “correctly”? Nation building? Permanent military presence? Trials of the criminal oligarchs who control Haiti?

There is a small chance. It depends on who the Republicans nominate. If it’s Palin, Obama is a two-term president. The guy I’m most worried about is John Thune, who isn’t well known nationally, but looks marketable:

http://thune.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Home.Home

Depends on how well he plays to the Teabaggers and the religious right.

I agree with @pdworkin on Haiti. I think it is a bottomless pit. Besides the initial rescue and aid operations, are we really going to want to commit to rebuilding the nation? And how likely is it that we can succeed – our talents, or any other country’s for that matter, for nation-building being limited?

We could have ameliorated the Afghanistan situation after the Soviets left by devoting some money to building schools, as Charlie Wilson wanted, but we didn’t, enabling the Taliban to take over.

The chance is 23.79%

Or 24.

If you round up. ^^^^

A few teleprompters for the record.

I think that if the Republicans ever stop opposing everything Obama does just because he suggested it, real change can happen. I think that even despite their best efforts, positive change will happen and people will be able to recognize that by the time that elections roll around again. Then again, if the Republicans put someone so obviously unqualified up as they did with their VP pick last time, they’ll drive people to voting for Obama just to keep that idiot out as happened this time.

All in all… I think he has another term in him.

Re-elect him?

I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t lead us into full fledged anarchy.

@DrBill Been watching Fox News recently?

I’d vote to give him a second term. It’s only been a year into his first term and it’s not likely that the Republicans will produce anyone worthy of my vote in 2012. But, then, unlike some, I’m not ready to break out the pitchforks and torches and form an unruly mob.

I love odd numbers.

Why @mattbrowne – are you thinking he should be a three-term president?

@avvooooooo

No, what are they saying?

@DrBill Anarchy, chaos, end of the world… the usual.

@janbb – I was referring to the percentage. No. I think the two-term model in the US is a very good thing.

@avvooooooo

That is surprising, Fox finally got one right.

Isn’t their tag line “we slant, you decide”?

@DrBill – Yeah, it’s the law of averages. If FOX perpetually throws out nothing but crap and lies, eventually the fragile human condition is going to accommodate the absurd.