I’m not going to pick a fight with any answer. I’m just going to say what I believe to be the truth.
Conservatives are supposed to be in favor of tried and true solutions. That, in fact, is the core of what the word, conservative, means. Sadly, the people of the right today are, for the most part, nowhere near that definition. They wanted an austerity program instituted in a downturn instead of the spending we are now engaged in. They still want that. What they really want is less taxes, and that isn’t likely to fix the deficit, since drastically slashing taxes for the wealthy in the Reagan Administration is what started the debt curve skyrocketing in the first place.
We have been there and done that in 1929. Hoover “fixed” the crash of 1929 with an austerity program. The results were that unemployment rose from 2.5% in early 1929 to nearly 25% 1933 and the end of Hoover’s presidency. The gross domestic product dropped a stunning 40%. Banks throughout the USA and around the world collapsed and locked their doors without being able to even pay depositors. There was no FDIC so people who had done everything right their entire lives lost their jobs and their entire savings overnight. Tent cities sprung up all around the USA. Soup kitchens ran out of food trying to feed the hungry.
FDR came into office into office and instituted an aggressive deficit spending program to get the economy restarted. It worked, and unemployment dropped below 15% but by the 1936 elections Republicans were protesting the spending and debt so loudly that FDR cut back on the New Deal, and we had the recession within the depression, where unemployment spiked back up to 18%. Seeing that, Roosevelt reinvigorated the WPA and had unemployment back in check and the Gross Domestic Product back where its growth curve should have been by 1941, before Pearl Harbor was attacked. See Wikipedia for the GDP and Unemployment charts.
You will hear today’s right claim that spending never helps the economy and that only WWII cured the depression. This is pure revisionist history, wishful thinking of those who, despite its repeated failures, want “don’t tax, just spend” to actually work this time. First, the economy had recovered before Pearl Harbor. Second, and far more salient, what was WWII but government spending on the most massive scale ever seen to that time? The argument is, on its surface, absurd.
On this point, Paul Krugmann and the Keynesians are right When consumers cannot spend, and businesses can’t spend, there is only one sector left that can prevent a long-term dwindling spiral, and that is government.
Now, economic wrecks are rather like auto wrecks. When you drive the car into the ditch at 90 miles an hour, it’s going to get banged up. You may have to borrow some money to tow it out of the ditch and fix it back up to be roadworthy. If you don’t, you are going to spend a long time without wheels, getting nowhere fast. But once it is fixed up, you have to drive it to work and start paying off the costs of towing and repairs that you borrowed.
We did that back in 1945. Today our national debt is less than the GDP, thank goodness. We’re closing in on the GDP, but not there. The cost of fighting WWII (which, by the way, was largely touched off by the pain and fear that the global depression generated) drove the debt to 120% of GDP back in 1945. We rolled up our sleeves then and set top tax rates as high as 94% on income over $200,000 and we paid the debt down.
Of course, $200,000 was a real fortune back in 1945, and the taxes on earnings up to that level were much lower, so even people earning a million dollars got to keep nearly a quarter of a million. Lots pf new millionaires came into being in the post-war boom and the middle class really was formed in the USA in those years. So those tax rates did not stifle growth as the right likes to claim. That’s just more something for nothing wishful thinking. More claiming to be conservative while rejecting tried and true solutions.
With today’s robust economy, we don’t need taxes anywhere near as high as they were in 1945. Rates like they were in the Clinton Administration would work, as they did then. But we need to increase taxes and particularly on the top income earners, who are currently able to slide through loopholes that actually put them at a lower rate than ordinary workers. Our billionaires are not an endangered species needing federal tax shelters for protection.