What do you think will become of the mineral deposits in Afghanistan?
The NYTimes article states that there were vast deposits of all sorts of valuable minerals found in Afghanistan, close to $1 trillion. The first thought in my head was, “Isn’t that nice for the American economy?” I know that isn’t what is going to happen, but that’s a really nice boost for somebody.
What are the ramifications of a find like this? Who gets an economic boost because of this? Will it have an impact on the war in Afghanistan or not?
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Nations with an extraction economy do not have a history of doing well. See the former Belgian Congo for one example.
China and western corporations competing with each other to buy extraction rights from whatever warlord controls the territory. Continuous civil war as Afghan groups vie for control of the territory. Bribes, weapons sales and fortunes hoarded away by the strong men of the moment; very little of the money trickling down into the hands of ordinary Afghans.
As @dpworkin points out, nations totally dependent on mineral extraction have a very poor track record in terms of distribution of wealth and cultural advancement. It’s cheaper to pay millions to warlords than billions in taxes to a properly organized state.
Here’s a USGS release from 2007 on the same topic. It doesn’t talk about the “high tech” minerals, but does talk about other deposits.
The meek shall inherit the earth but not its mineral rights.- J. Paul Getty
In today’s NY TImes there is a letter discussing the impact of the leasing of petroleum rights in the Amazon on the local indigenous peoples. I suspect the exploitation of any mineral deposits in Afghanistan by large multi-national corporations and corrupt Afghani leaders with American compliance will further erode Afghanistan. We seem to be living in a “post-colonial” age in which the effects of globalism are as dire as the effects of imperialsim formerly were.
[My answer, copied from @john65pennington’s similar question in the General section]
1) The War—I don’t think calling it a war is accurate, but USA’s troops will likely never leave Afghanistan voluntarily. As far as the fate of the fighting there, that depends on Taliban’s reaction to the discovery.
2) The Government—Mining/exporting gold and lithium would be a great substitute for the current opiate growth/production. This may, however, be too modern of an industry for the Taliban to tolerate.
3) The people—The establishment of gold and lithium industries in Afghanistan could result in a modernization of Afghanistan and its citizens. This could be beneficial, in that it may cause a modernization of rights also (women’s, in particular).
Overall, I think it all depends upon the Taliban.
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