Who will win the 2010 Tour de France?

I’ll be rooting for Mark Cavendish, just so we can read news stories involving the word ‘Manx.’

Defending champ Alberto Contador.He simply can’t be touched in the mountains & the time trials.

Contador has a weaker team this year. Astana is not providing as much support, since half the team went over to Armstrong’s Team RadioShack. The way I see it, RadioShack has two guys who could win it—Andreas Kloden being the other. Bradley Wiggins of Sky and Andy Schleck of Saxobank are my other two favorites. It will be interesting to see how Ivan Basso (Liquigas) does, but think his time is past.

The first serious mountains are in the Pyrenees and the riders haven’t had a chance to suss out the routes because of snow. So the good technical riders with fast reactions will do better. Youth has faster reactions, but age brings smarter riders. Should be interesting.
Of course, I’m rooting for Armstrong, but I also like Cadel Evans (BMC).

Should be fun!

Favorites: Contador and Andy Schleck.
Outsiders: Vinokourov and Cadel Evans.
Dark horses: Robert Gesink and Jurgen van den Broeck

If there are no crashes or mechanical failure I think the top GC winners will be #1 Schleck, #2 Contador, #3 Vinny. Old Lanc-o should have stayed out of France-o now he’s not got a chance-0! HA!

Lance wants to win the team competition. That’s why they aren’t really supporting Levi.

As to GC—I hope you are right. Tomorrow will tell (stage 17). I think that’s Schleck’s last chance to get enough time on Contador to be able to withstand Contador’s time trial abilities. Look for Schleck to attack going up Tourmaline. He has to get away and he probably has to get a minute on Contador. Frankly (not meant to be a pun), I don’t think he can do it. Contador will win the GC.

Contador says he apologized to Schleck for taking advantage of Schleck’s mechanical failure. Great! Did he volunteer to give his time back? The only way Contador can win his honor back is if he wins the time trial by more than 32 seconds over Schleck.

As I said Contador wins, simple really. Schleck will almost certainly go on to be a multiple winner in the years ahead. Too early & unlucky to come up against Contador in his prime, who I believe is better than his fellow Spaniard Miguel Indurain. As for the half minute Contador gained due to Schleck’s misfortune, not a defining moment at all. As Contador himself said 30 secs isn’t going to decide the tour at this stage.Contador far superior in Saturday’s time trial which will see him seal his third tour, too good simple as.

I think it is likely that Contador will win, even though I prefer Schleck. Tomorrow is the key. Schleck has to put enough distance between himself in Contador to make up for what he will lose in the time trial. I don’t expect that to happen, because Contador will be marking Schleck all the way. Schleck can only get away if he can pull some enormous acceleration and keep it going.

Contador is likely to have a teammate with him to help him draw Schleck back, if Schleck goes too early. So Schleck will have to make his move in the last 5K or so. He has to leave enough time/distance to gain a minute on Contador, but not enough for Contador, assisted or not, to reel him back in. God, I wish I could watch it live!

@ucme Are you a total fan? I love this stuff!

@wundayatta “Contador says he apologized to Schleck for taking advantage of Schleck’s mechanical failure.”
Yesterday i heard a Dutch (ex) cyclist state that one could compare it to Barrichello grinding to a halt to wait for Hamilton, who has engine problems.
What is your take on it, if you please?
I think that it is all in the game, mechanical troubles, flats, crashes, what have you…
The only thing that bothered me, was that it seemed that Contador saw what happened (i mean, they eye each other 24/7), he then obviously went on, but after finishing stated that he hadn’t seen it.
That took some off of the sympathy that i have for Alberto C.
Nice pun you had there (“Frankly….”)!

@rebbel You know, I really don’t know what to think. I saw a number of replays, and it wasn’t clear to me if Contador did know Schleck was having mechanical difficulties or not. I think he did see it. But he said he started his break before the accident, which I think was not true. On the other hand, I think he could have started his break before he knew what was going on, then passed Schleck, seen what happened, and decided to keep on going, justifying it in his head that he had already gone. Also his teammate was up there, too. I think it was his teammate, anyway.

It’s hard for me to be objective about this because I like Schleck (Andy, not Frank). I think Contador is on iffy grounds. I think this is only a gentlemen’s agreement, and I suspect that the gentlemen may not be so inclined to keep the agreement if Contador should have a problem in the future.

At the end, Contador ended with the peloton, I think. Look at it this way. The race does not stop for every person with mechanical difficulties. Only those in the lead. But the Peloton has to move on. There was the breakaway to catch, or reel in. There was someone up there who could have put some serious time into the leaders with a 10 minute victory. So they had to keep going, even if it was Schleck, I think. So perhaps it is fair that Andy ended up being left behind.

If Contador wins in Paris, then he had better win by more than 30 seconds over Schleck in order to nullify his questionable antics. But of course the up coming time trial should take are of that.

@wundayatta I wouldn’t say a total fan, but like most sports I have followed it fairly avidly over the years. When I follow a sport I get involved as much as possible, no point otherwise. I also have quite an encyclopedic knowledge of most sports that i’m into. In the case of the Tour de France i’m guessing my interest stems form it being held in the summer when the football season is on a break. Got to watch some sport. I go back as far as Lemond/Fignon/Delgado/Indurain. So yeah that’s my excuse & by gum i’m sticking to it!!

A final point on “cyclegate” If you study the footage again it is perfectly clear what happened. At the precise moment Schleck’s gears derailed, Vinokourov covered his attack closely followed by Contador & others. Now, importantly amongst the “others” were Sanchez (Euskaltel) & Menchov (Rabobank) both GC contenders. Contador was absolutely mindful of Schleck’s mishap but also he had to cover the moves of both those riders.They made no attempt at all to wait for the stricken Saxo Bank rider. Contador did no more than what any fierce competitor must do i.e, cover any/all eventualities. Which he did. The winner takes it all, as someone once said.

Alberto Contador.

Wow!
I’m impressed.~