Social Question

ETpro's avatar

What happens after we automate all work?

Asked by ETpro (34605points) June 29th, 2010

Conservatives are quick to rail against any form of social support. They value individual responsibility and effort. These are certainly good things, and worthy of support. But there has been a very clear trend since the industrial revolution to increasingly automate work, shifting the load from mankind to machines. In the early days of the USA, over 90% of the US population worked in agriculture. Today, well under 5% does, but the US is a major exporter of food, feeding not only our own population but much of the world’s. Now automated assistants are taking over the work humans once did in customer service and call centers.

There is no reason to believe that the accelerating curve of workplace automation will suddenly level off at a plateau, or reverse course. That means we likely face a future in which most of us let machines work for us. How then do we earn a living? Do we rethink our attitudes about conservative values of work and independence, or do we just let a very substantial percentage of humanity starve to death? What do we do when we no longer have a good reason to work?

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21 Answers

IchtheosaurusRex's avatar

In such an economy, it shouldn’t be necessary for anyone to work. If the machines produce everything, we won’t have to pay for it, right? We can all become artists or poets or hedonists.

marinelife's avatar

We’ll work on creating and maintaining the machines that do the work.

ZEPHYRA's avatar

We become the slaves of automation.

ApolloX64's avatar

Idiocracy shows us the best example of our future. You should watch it. Everyone should.

AmWiser's avatar

Remember when the calculator was first introduced, at school we weren’t allowed to use calculators, we didn’t have computers we had to use our heads. Now just because intelligence is found by computers and technology, humans forget how to use their heads. We are doomed when we forget how to use our brains and let machines do our thinking.

ApolloX64's avatar

@AmWiser I agree 100%. When I was in Public School (Grades 1–8) we weren’t allowed to use calculators at all and then when I got into High School (9–12) we got put into detention if we didn’t have a calculator and were penalized if we did the math calculations in our heads.

wundayatta's avatar

You can’t automate thinking. You can’t automate creativity. You can’t automate soul. You can’t automate love. You can’t automate human choices.

If all our material needs are taken care of, this will free humans to do what they really want to do. Entertainment will become ever more important, and content will have to be created. Everyone will be in the creativity industry in one way or another.

CaptainHarley's avatar

You might enjoy reading The Rational Optimist:

Anyone reading the news these days might be tempted to heap scorn on Matt Ridley’s thesis in The Rational Optimist: “The world,” he writes, “is as good a place to live as it has ever been for the average human being.” Yet Ridley here sets forth a compelling case that commerce, technology and innovation have made life better than ever before, and will continue to increase human prosperity.

As Ridley notes, over the first 50 years of his life, global income per capita has more than tripled, while lifespan and calories per capita have increased by a third, and child mortality has fallen to one-third what it was. All this while the global population has nearly tripled. More people, he notes, have been raised out of poverty in recent years than in all of human history. A multitude of additional statistics of ever-increasing prosperity fill these pages.

Covering the entire sweep of human history and human life from the Stone Age to the Information Age, Ridley locates a chief engine of this overall improvement in a continuing expansion of “catallaxy”—a term coined by economist Friedrich Hayek to describe spontaneous order created by exchange and specialization. Intelligence, Ridley predicts, will over time become more and more collective; meanwhile, innovation, order and work will become increasingly driven by “bottom-up” rather than “top-down” forces. “It will be hard,” he writes in the conclusion, “to snuff out the flame of innovation, because it is such an evolutionary, bottom-up phenomenon in such a networked world… the 21st century will be a magnificent time to be alive.”

The Rational Optimist is a contrarian trumpet blast for the notion that things are better than we think, and getting better all the time.

Ron_C's avatar

Now your in my backyard. When you have everything automated, you need people to fix and program the automation. I love it, it;s good for business.

It will be many years or never before we can build machines that fix themselves and don’t break down.

ninjacolin's avatar

After we automate all current tasks, we will then begin work on automating the new tasks we imagine would be good to automate. :)

ETpro's avatar

@wundayatta Given the absolutely abysmal record of predictions about what is technically impossible, I wouldn’t be too sure those things are beyond the reach of automation. The human brain appears to be a neural network working, at its basic level, on pure cause and effect. Granted it is an incredibly complex multiple-hidden-layer teachable neural network—but it is still ultimately a neural network. What we call a soul appears to arise out of it, not oversee its operations.

@CaptainHarley That sounds like a book worth reading. Thanks.

@ninjacolin As a former automation engineer, that gives me hope. :-)

wundayatta's avatar

@ETpro I didn’t say you couldn’t make artificial thinking or creativity, just not automatable. Having said that, I don’t think we will ever make true artificial intelligences. Yes, man-made neural networks can learn, and perhaps they will become increasingly complex fairly rapidly, but I doubt it will ever be enough to rival all the capabilities of a human mind.

ApolloX64's avatar

.. and the….. SKYNET! DUN DUN DUN.

mattbrowne's avatar

We explore the universe.

ETpro's avatar

@wundayatta Time will tell, but I would place my bets on just the opposite, and that is based on my knowledge of the current state of the art in neural network research and AI development and the Law of Accelerating Returns as applied to technological growth.

wundayatta's avatar

@ETpro I’m not sure I want to live long enough to be proved wrong.

I think it matters what hardware the software runs on. Therefore, I don’t think digital thinking will ever be able to model (or be) biological thinking. In any case, I doubt if anyone would ever think that they wanted to emulate biological thinking. Anyway, to contradict my first statement, we should be so lucky as to live long enough to experience an information singularity.

ETpro's avatar

@wundayatta At 66, I can not but agree heartily with that!

josie's avatar

@mattbrowne Is correct.
Once we can escape the burden to physically scrabble in the earth in order to survive, we will start doing what we were meant to do which is find out what it is all about.

ETpro's avatar

@josie Sounds like paradise to me.

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