Can Obama win in 2012 without Clinton?

It’s hard to handicap a race when you don’t even know who is seeking the Republican nomination. Also the economy and the way will have a lot to do with what happens in 2012. Who knows? Maybe the Mayan calendar will too!

I don’t know if Clinton would want to be VP. Although I suppose it would make sense in one way—if Obama did well in a second term, she could build on that. On the other hand, if he does poorly, she’d be much better off not being a part of the administration.

As to the defecting middle-class independents and working-class voters—that all depends on the economy more than anything. I doubt if Clinton would shield Obama from a bad economy as far as those two groups are concerned.

As usual, the Presidential Election will be a referendum on the economy. If it’s bad, Clinton won’t help, and if it’s good, Clinton won’t be needed. I doubt she’ll be the next running mate. But it’s a long way between now and then, and I could well change my mind in the intervening time.

I seriously doubt Obama will stand a chance for re-election. Too many people, Republican and Democrat alike, are angry with him.

Couple of things here -

It is far too early to know what the political landscape will be like for Big O in 2012. It will largely depend on the economy, which will in part depend on 2010. If the Dems retain control of the House, they will at least be able to fund the government at some marginally functional level. If the Senate goes through with Filibuster Reform, they might actually do some good, by helping the states meet their budget shortfalls for instance.

If the Republicans take the House, forget it. They’ll resume what they do best – witch hunting. Expect to see administration officials and House Dems hauled before committee after committee. When they’re not prosecuting their reign of terror, they’ll demand tax cuts, deregulation, and the rest of the usual Republican fare. They won’t fund anything passed by the current Congress, including the HCR and WSR bills. perhaps they’ll even shut down the government again. No legislation of consequence will pass for the next two years. If so, it will be up to the Fed to keep the economy from crashing and burning – but you can expect them to be hauling Fed officials before their committees, too.

In the best case scenario, unemployment will stay at 10% But it will probably get worse, and the Fox News/Hate Radio noise machine will lay the blame at Obama’s feet. People might vote him out just to get those assholes to shut up.

However, the Republicans have a problem in 2012. Actually, they have several problems. Their only “electable” candidate is Mitt Romney, who is almost universally disliked in his own party. Palin will be there, but in what capacity? If she makes a serious run for the nomination, she’ll either take it or leave the party so bloodied from infighting that they won’t have the energy to elect whoever they end up with.

And whatever rifts may exist between Obama and the Clintons, don’t expect them to be a factor. Bubba and Mrs. Bubba will do whatever it takes to keep Obama right where he is. They had their shot in 2008 and they know it. Best for them to help the party now.

Too much can happen in the next couple of years, but I am willing to wager that Clinton will cause Obama almost as many issues as Palin caused McCain if those two are on the ticket together, so I don’t see the Obama/Clinton ticket as viable unless it’s Bill instead of Hillary.

@wundayatta I am sure you are right. It will boil down to “Where are the jobs?” All those people who swear presidents and government can’t make jobs will throw the bums out wh didn’t make jobs, and vote in the batch that made them go away to begin with.

Even with their support Obama couldn’t win….stick a fork in him, he is done. Time to set the table for the next lamb to sacrifice.

@Cruiser, have a listen.