To put the Tea Party in perspective, yes they’re winning primaries, but whether those wins will turn out to be a good thing or a bad thing for the Republican party remains to be seen. Consider that Joe Miller, who beat Alaska incumbent Lisa Murkowski, won with somewhere between 40 and 50 thousand votes TOTAL. Last week, Christine O’Donnell won with between 30 and 40 thousand. The last Presidential election was 69 million to 59 million votes. What we’re talking about is small states holding elections that only the most committed political faithful even turn out. This election is about enthusiasm…mid terms don’t turn out NEARLY as many voters as a Presidential election…most people who aren’t extremely left or right leaning just don’t care enough to take the time to vote in these things, much less in a primary to decide who runs in these things.
It is therefore no surprise that in the mid terms (as is historically the case), the political elements which lean the farthest away from the party in power will do extremely well…always happens. Only the people who feel great discontent and want to “throw the bums out” are the ones who are really whipped up about these elections.
But the Tea Party nationwide has 20% support, that is 20% of people sympathize or identify with the movement. If you look at the 33% or so of people who identify as Republican, half are going to be to the left of the middle of the party, half are going to be to the right of the middle of the party. Right there the Tea Party has a built in 16% base, it’s really only about 4% of the disaffected, but previously politically apathetic, or disenchanted with whatever party they used to follow who have glommed onto this movement.
So Palin COULD win the Republican primary in 2012, because primaries are decided by the most radical elements of the party, but that assumes there’s still as much dissatisfaction with the state of the economy come 2012. I don’t believe, for a number of reasons it would take me more time than I have to put down, that come 2012, things are going to be this bad. As much as is made about Obama’s current approval rating, where he is right now is not at all out of step with where other Presidents who DID win 2 terms were at a similar point. Things are so bad right now that the economic improvement that is bound to happen in the next two years, regardless of who controls Congress, will build great enthusiasm, and I believe Obama will win in 2012, almost no matter what. I think the best bet the Republicans have in 2012 would be to nominate a very moderate/centrist, but given this movement, the scope of what Obama has done and will do by then, and the propensity for the farthest opposite elements of the party to dominate the primaries, I think it’s very likely someone who is too extreme, too radical, someone just like Palin, to get the nomination.
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