General Question

Trucktruck's avatar

If a candidate is projected to win a state, can that projection change?

Asked by Trucktruck (75points) November 8th, 2016

Can it?

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6 Answers

SavoirFaire's avatar

Yes. A projection is essentially an educated guess. It’s based on extrapolating current information into the future. That said, most news outlets try not to project a winner until they have pretty strong evidence for their extrapolation. Projections are usually, though not always, correct.

Trucktruck's avatar

So 218–266 is not necessarily correct???

SavoirFaire's avatar

That’s right. It is not necessarily correct, though it is very likely to be correct. In any case, I wouldn’t expect a concession speech tonight.

JLeslie's avatar

Hillary conceded, so probably her people did all the math and didn’t see a way to win.

SavoirFaire's avatar

Yup, she conceded this morning. We’ll probably hear her concession speech sometime later today.

gondwanalon's avatar

Expert statisticians are very good at crunching the numbers. Their reputations are at stake. It’s unlikely that they could get their prediction wrong when they’ve looked at over 99% of the results.

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